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May 2, 2014
May 2, 2014
“The Greek economy is not in recession.  Nor is it recovering.  It has collapsed.”  -Wolfgang Munchau of The Financial Times Much to be humble about…  When you write a financial newsletter, it’s easy to fall into a dangerous trap. If you’re not careful, your readers can start to accord you guru status, or, even worse, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 25, 2014
April 25, 2014
“I’m convinced that everything that’s important in investing is counterintuitive, and everything that’s obvious is wrong.” -Superstar investor, Howard Marks, from his acclaimed recent essay Dare to be Great II POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Most economists seem to believe the negative effects of last year’s massive tax hike impacted 2013 economic activity. However, with affluent […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 18, 2014
April 18, 2014
“History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums.” -Alan Greenspan Brilliant bookends.  As many EVA readers know, Evergreen was extremely fortunate to have both Louis Gave and Grant Williams co-present, along with yours truly, at our February Annual Outlook event. Just as serendipitously, Mauldin Economics offered to record […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 11, 2014
April 11, 2014
“A leader does not deserve the name unless he is willing to occasionally stand alone.” -Henry Kissinger “Deep doubts, deep wisdom; small doubts, little wisdom.” -Chinese proverb POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Last week’s EVA made the case that US productivity growth has slowed dramatically since the new millennium began. The following chart makes that clear […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 4, 2014
April 4, 2014
 “We’ve gone back into this kind of a foie-gras bubble environment.  We’re all being force-fed risk assets.  It’s an unpleasant experience when you’re playing goose to the central bank farmer.”   -James Montier, strategist at elite money manager, GMO “Unless countries come together to take the right kind of policy measures, we could be facing […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 28, 2014
March 28, 2014
“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” -Warren Buffett Special message:  Thanks to your loyal readership, as well as your advocacy, we recently eclipsed 5000 readers of our weekly e-letter. The intent of the Evergreen Virtual Advisor (EVA) is twofold. First, we try to convey to our clients the rationale for decisions […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 21, 2014
March 21, 2014
“Americans were not put on this earth to become managers of decline.”   -Ronald Reagan  “Humans are…guided by the immediate emotional impact of gains and losses, not by the long-term prospects of wealth.” -Nobel laureate, and behavioral investing pioneer, Daniel Kahneman Blessing counting time.  The stock market is overrated—note, I didn’t say overvalued (even though […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 14, 2014
March 14, 2014
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” -Aldous Huxley POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Compensation trends are definitely heading the right way for many US workers.  While this is a welcome development for Main Street, it implies profit margin pressure for corporate America at a time when it is struggling mightily to generate […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 7, 2014
March 7, 2014
“Most of the money you’ll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents.” -Lou Krieger “In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” -Warren Buffett Know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.  A few weeks ago, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 28, 2014
February 28, 2014
“Owners of stocks…too often let the capricious and irrational behavior of their fellow owners cause them to behave irrationally as well.” -WARREN BUFFETT POINTS TO PONDER 1. Various prior EVAs have noted that bull markets rarely last as long as five years (this one will hit that age on March 9th) but, if they do, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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