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January 31, 2014
January 31, 2014
"An emerging market is a market you can’t emerge from in an emergency." -Don Coxe, for many years one of Canada’s leading portfolio managers and strategists. POINTS TO PONDER 1. The US trade deficit continues to narrow, and this improvement might accelerate given the US energy revival. This does pose problems, however, for the rest […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 24, 2014
January 24, 2014
"The typical secular bear market has multiple cyclical phases—and there will be more of these cycles before the current secular bear is over." -Ed Easterling, author of the highly regarded investment book, Unexpected Returns SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: For some of our readers, now may be a good time to book a trip. United Airlines chose to […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 17, 2014
January 17, 2014
"Never mistake a wish for a certainty." -Maggie Smith, as Violet Crawley, the Dowager Countess on Downton Abbey POINTS TO PONDER 1. Irrespective of the punk jobs number last week, it does appear US consumer spending ended 2013 on a robust note. Real consumer expenditures apparently rose 4% as the fourth quarter came to a […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 10, 2014
January 10, 2014
"If the experience of the past few years teaches us anything, it is that we should be cautious in our forecasts." - BEN BERNANKE, in his final official speech last week. Time rolls on! One of my friends has a less than elegant saying that is nevertheless quite accurate at my age: Life is like […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 3, 2014
January 3, 2014
"It is the long-term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for the most criticism. For it is in the essence of his behavior that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average opinion." - JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES Special message: Although Evergreen expects 2014 […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 24, 2013
December 24, 2013
The Merriest Christmas On Record Louis Gave The United Nations recently released a heartening update on its "millennium goals" for the developing world, with many of its 2015 targets on the way to being met, or indeed already met. The target to halve the number of people living on less than US$1.25 per day was […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 20, 2013
December 20, 2013
"It’s not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change." -CHARLES DARWIN POINTS TO PONDER 1. Although the US energy renaissance is now well known, it is nonetheless impressive to view the degree to which exports are soaring and imports are plunging. (See Figures 1 […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 13, 2013
December 13, 2013
"Unfortunately, Mr. Paul has maintained his consistency by ignoring reality, clinging to his ideology even as the facts have demonstrated that ideology’s wrongness…" -PAUL KRUGMAN, referring to Ron Paul "The Fed never admits it, and the Congress disregards it out of ignorance, but the serious harm done by artificially low interest rates—leading to malinvestment, overcapacity, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 7, 2013
December 27, 2013
"Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything." -GEORGE BERNARD SHAW ‘Tis the Season. There’s just something about the holidays that makes it difficult to dwell on things like "secular stagnation," or "structural unemployment," or even "American Express Statement Enclosed." Rather, it’s a time to consider the eggnog […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 6, 2013
December 6, 2013
“We have nothing to fear but the notion that there is nothing to fear.”   -ED  YARDENI, Noted economist and stock market strategist “The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs.” -WARREN BUFFETT “It’s the swings of psychology that get people into […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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