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February 18, 2011
February 18, 2011
"In China, of course, just like in most emerging markets, you're dealing in a country where the rule of law and the independence of the courts are extremely questionable... That's why emerging markets...deserve to trade at a discount compared to developed markets." -LOUIS GAVE Being Evergreen Capital’s chief investment officer has many advantages, but taking […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 11, 2011
February 11, 2011
"You can never say never, but I cannot imagine a convincing argument for further quantitative easing after this round, given what is developing now in the economy." -Dallas Fed Chief RICHARD FISHER POINTS TO PONDER 1. The battle against inflation in emerging markets continues to escalate, largely driven by soaring commodity costs. The combination of […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 4, 2011
February 4, 2011
"No persons are more frequently wrong than those who will not admit they are wrong." -Author FRANCOIS DUC DE LA ROCHEFOUCAULD POINTS TO PONDER 1. The Fed’s ultra-easy monetary policy is looking increasingly out-of-phase with the mounting evidence of a healing US economy. The manufacturing version of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 28, 2011
January 28, 2011
"The mood in the market is better, but the fundamental problems of the euro zone remain unresolved." - NOUIEL ROUBINI, NYU Professor of Economics (and one of the few academics to warn in advance of the housing bubble's demise). 1. The US stock market has witnessed a persistent narrowing of the overall valuation premium by […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 21, 2011
January 21, 2011
“There’s clearly a buyers strike in the market for state and local government debt that is largely based on fear and misperception. The mass selling of munis, which represent the bedrock of the US economy, is incredible.” - Influential strategist and economist DAVID ROSENBERG   POINTS TO PONDER 1. The powerful 20-month rally in real […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 14, 2011
January 14, 2011
“The aggressiveness of our accommodative policy may soon backfire on us if we don’t begin to gradually reverse course.” - Philadelphia Fed President, CHARLES PROSSER, referring to the Federal Reserve’s government bond buying program. POINTS TO PONDER 1. A few years ago, the US economy was artificially stimulated by hundreds of billions of home equity […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 7, 2011
January 7, 2011
“The most reliable way to anticipate the future is by understanding the past.” -JOHN NAISBITT, Megatrends Author Special message: First, Happy New Year to all! Based on our clients’ investment results for 2010, it was certainly a happy old year. We’d be thrilled to see anything approaching those returns in 2011. Second, because this is […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 31, 2010
Evergreen Virtual Advisor
Click here to view as PDF. “Could or would a state default? Not really―Illinois is probably in the worst shape, and there are states that I would avoid but basically the states are not going to default in Pimco’s opinion.” -Bond guru Bill Gross POINTS TO PONDER By David Hay, Chief Investment Officer 1. The view that […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 24, 2010
Evergreen Virtual Advisor
Click to view as PDF. “Indeed, the euro must still be one of the greatest shorts out there—what sort of credibility can the currency possibly have when the Irish banks managed to pass those European stress tests last summer?” - DAVID ROSENBERG, prominent economic strategist POINTS TO PONDER 1. The index of US Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) has […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 17, 2010
Evergreen Virtual Advisor
Click here to view as PDF. “Pessimism is so often wrong because people assume a world where there is no change or innovation. They simply extrapolate from what is going on today, failing to recognize the new developments and insights that might alter current trends.” -Bill Gates POINTS TO PONDER 1. Year-end supply pressures and credit fears continue to […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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