Blog

March 17, 2022
Important Message
Below is a re-send of this message, which originally posted yesterday but has since been updated to include the correct donation link. Thank you all. -------- We are interrupting our normal Bubble 3.0 publication sequence to convey an extremely important message.  We will resume publishing Bubble 3.0 on Friday with Chapter 16 on the ultimate […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 11, 2022
Positioning Recommendations – March 11th, 2022
There are times when it’s relatively easy to be an investor.  This is definitely not one of them! For years, it was possible to just sit back and ride the market’s rising tide caused by nearly endless liquidity infusions from the Fed and the other leading central banks.  Those days have come to an end.  […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 4, 2022
Positioning Recommendations - March 4th, 2022
Will the nightmares ever stop?  After two years of coping with a global pandemic, humanity is now faced with images of Russian attacks on an operating nuclear facility.  V. Putin’s not-very-veiled threats to use nuclear weapons only intensify the Kafkaesque conditions.    In last week’s note, I stated that the odd decline in commodity prices at […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 25, 2022
Positioning Recommendations - February 25th, 2022
The tanks roll, oil rolls over, and tech roars back! This is not exactly what a rational investor would have expected in the event of a multi-front invasion of Ukraine with Kyiv already under siege.  Perhaps this odd reaction is a function of the feather-light wrist-slap the West has administered to Russia thus far. Reportedly, Italian Prime […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 18, 2022
Positioning Recommendations - February 18th, 2022
Another week, another tech wreck.  For growth investors, the echoes with 2000 are becoming deafening.  Battered high P/E stocks, which were down 50% in many cases as of a few weeks ago, just keep on taking a licking.  Yes, they’re still ticking—as in, ticking lower… and lower… and lower.  During the Nasdaq’s extraordinary slow-motion crash […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 11, 2022
The US Cash Cushion
The US economy is on course to undergo two major transitions this year. First, interest rates will go up as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. Second, economic conditions will get more volatile, as the government and the Fed cut back their stabilizing interventions and the private sector resumes prime responsibility for capital allocation.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 11, 2022
Bubble 3.0, Chapter 4; The Bubble That Keeps on Punishing
Do you ever wonder how we got into this mess?  By that I mean the situation where the Fed has printed itself into the tightest of corners, caught between an inflation problem, largely of its own making, and an inability to raise interest rates high enough to fight torrid CPI increases that have turned out […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 10, 2022
Positioning Recommendations – February 11th, 2022
As I hope all EVA Positioning Recommendation (PR) recipients are aware, our normal Evergreen Virtual Advisor newsletters are being switched out for the publication of my book “Bubble 3.0” via the increasingly popular financial social media service, Substack.  If for some reason you are not getting the email links to it, please let us know […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 7, 2022
Bubble 3.0, Chapter 2, The Worst Kind Of Bubble
Greetings, EVA and “Bubble 3.0” readers! Thank you for your continuing interest in this project.  Based on the flood of new impressions that have been generated, it does seem like the subject matter is of interest to a broad audience.  That has certainly been my hope but I’m gratified to see momentum building behind this […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 4, 2022
Positioning Recommendations – February 4th, 2022
The Most Dangerous Chart on Wall Street? Yes, I admit it.  The following image doesn’t look very scary--especially not compared with many of the market valuation charts such as the one immediately below it showing the towering price-to-sales ratio for the S&P--but please allow me to explain my reasoning.                         The first visual illustrates how remarkably […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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