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November 16, 2023
The Fed Pauses...Now What?
A little under a month ago, various Federal Reserve governors started to signal that the US central bank might have reached its terminal destination in this hiking cycle. Of course, such statements were replete with caveats that short rates would stay “higher for longer”, even as history shows that, aside from 2006-07, once the Fed […]
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November 2, 2023
Soup Up Your Balanced Portfolio, Don't Take it to the Junkyard!
On October 19th, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published an article by Eric Wallerstein entitled, “The Trusted 60-40 Investing Strategy Just Had Its Worst Year in Generations. Higher interest rates and inflation are upending millions of Americans’ retirement planning. Wall Street’s boilerplate mix of stocks and bonds isn’t cutting it anymore.” In short, the author […]
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October 5, 2023
The Sustainability of US Debt (Part One)
A political deal may have been cobbled together to keep the US government operating until November, but on Monday treasuries kept selling off. As investors game out what the funding deal means for monetary policy, they are unlikely to find succor in the US’s poor fiscal outlook. Some analysts blame this fiscal deterioration on past […]
By: Will Denyer
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September 28, 2023
IPO Market Gains Momentum
Activity in the Initial Public Offering (IPO) market plays a pivotal role in guiding private market companies and investors alike. While IPO activity all but dried up in 2022, the IPO market has shown signs of life in 2023. In 2022, a meager 71 IPOs managed to raise $7.7 billion in proceeds in the United […]
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September 7, 2023
What Are Banks Saying?
If money represents the lifeblood of the economic world, then commercial banks are the beating heart that pump it around the system. This is why several Gavekal indicators—notably our velocity indicator—are built around the absolute and relative performance of bank stocks. One rule of thumb states that a country or region in which bank stocks […]
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August 17, 2023
Strong Economic Momentum Leads to New Bull Market for Stocks
This edition of Evergreen Chartbook was recorded in a webinar format where Co-Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dicks discusses key charts driving this year's resurging stock market, current risks facing financial markets, and how Evergreen is positioning client portfolios.  DISCLOSURE: Securities highlighted or discussed in this communication are mentioned for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation […]
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August 10, 2023
Will Soft Landing Expectations Propel Markets to New Highs?
This week, we're presenting a thoughtful conversation between David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, and David Hay, co-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal. During the discussion, the two talk about recession indicators, investment implications, and whether soft landing expectation will propel markets to new highs. The discussion was recorded on July 18th, 2023 and is moderated by […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 3, 2023
US Treasuries’ ‘Risk-Free’ Status
In downgrading US government debt from AAA to AA+, Fitch cited a fiscal deterioration in the next three years, a growing general debt burden and bad governance due to repeated political standoffs over the debt ceiling issue. Coming a day after the US Treasury said new debt issuance would rise to US$1,007bn in 3Q23, up […]
By: Tan Kai Xian
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July 27, 2023
Does A Shift In Tone Signal Opportunity In China?
The investment landscape in China has always been characterized by uncertainty, as vast opportunities coexist alongside significant regulatory complexities and political considerations. While much remains unchanged in that regard, softening rhetoric from Chinese policymakers has given rise to the idea that beleaguered technology companies could be near a turning point. On July 7th, the China […]
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July 6, 2023
The Surprises Of 2023
We are now past the halfway point of the year and, like every year, events have occurred that were either predictable, understandable in hindsight, or genuinely came out of the blue. In the following pages, I will review the more important developments thus far in 2023, and take a stab at assessing what they tell […]
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