Blog

March 17, 2022
Piling On The Fed... The Price of Bubblenomics
You probably know by now that I tend to do things in an unconventional way.  Publishing Bubble 3.0 via Substack is such an example.  (However, the highly regarded Pippa Malmgren is also releasing her newest book via Substack).*  It was also a bit unorthodox to run a few chapters ahead of their normal sequence.   […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 11, 2022
Why China Will Not Save Russia
Not long before Russia invaded Ukraine, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met in Beijing and declared the friendship between their countries had “no limits”. Russia is likely finding out now that this “future oriented strategic partnership” is in fact limited.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 11, 2022
The Sting
You asked for it, you got it!     In this case, that old Toyota tagline doesn’t apply to a new car model but rather the publication of the full book Bubble 3.0 for which so many of you have been asking.  However, in our quest to please as many readers as we can, we will continue […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 4, 2022
The Semi Shortage Faces New Headwinds
Semiconductors have been described as “the brains of modern electronics.” The small but powerful chips are a critical component to today’s connected devices...
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March 4, 2022
Is the Buyback Bubble Ready to Burst?
This introduction to the latest chapter of Bubble 3.0 gives me the opportunity to highlight one of my most important and repeatedly emphasized topics:  Wrong cycle investing.  By that, I’m referring to the recurring tendency of most investors to buy high and sell low.  We all know we shouldn’t do that, but our very nature […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 25, 2022
Putin on the Blitz  
Let me be the first to admit, the full-on invasion of the Ukraine is not what I thought was the most likely outcome to this crisis.  It seemed to me, and still does, that this an exceptionally risky military adventure by V. Putin.  The Ukraine is home to some 43,000,000 people who occupy an enormous […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 18, 2022
Bubble 3.0, Chapter 7; What Price Bubblenomics?
The election of Donald Trump in 2016 was one of the biggest political upsets in US history. Besides his unlikely victory, another unexpected outcome was that his policies inadvertently led to the first implementation of the economic model detailed in Chapter Six: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Initially, though, Mr. Trump’s arrival at the White House […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 4, 2022
Chasing Decacorns: IPOs to Watch in 2022
Over 1,000 companies hit US public markets for the first time in 2021, shattering previous records. However, after a red-hot start to the year, shares of newly public listings reversed course towards the end of 2021 and into 2022.
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December 17, 2021
Macro Outlook for 2022
It’s not an exaggeration to say that the raging debate about whether inflation is transitory or persistent is the most important “opinion exchange”, at least for market participants.  Of course, this assumes China doesn’t invade Taiwan, and that Russia doesn’t attack the Ukraine, and Omicron remains highly transmissible but not very virulent. 
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 20, 2021
Balancing Risk Management With Timely Opportunism
Introduction This week, we are presenting an interview between Evergreen Gavekal's co-Chief Investment Officer, David Hay, and popular financial pundit and friend, Jesse Felder. For those who don't already know of Jesse's work, he began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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