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March 11, 2022
Positioning Recommendations – March 11th, 2022
There are times when it’s relatively easy to be an investor.  This is definitely not one of them! For years, it was possible to just sit back and ride the market’s rising tide caused by nearly endless liquidity infusions from the Fed and the other leading central banks.  Those days have come to an end.  […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 11, 2022
Why China Will Not Save Russia
Not long before Russia invaded Ukraine, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met in Beijing and declared the friendship between their countries had “no limits”. Russia is likely finding out now that this “future oriented strategic partnership” is in fact limited.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 11, 2022
The Sting
You asked for it, you got it!     In this case, that old Toyota tagline doesn’t apply to a new car model but rather the publication of the full book Bubble 3.0 for which so many of you have been asking.  However, in our quest to please as many readers as we can, we will continue […]
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March 4, 2022
Positioning Recommendations - March 4th, 2022
Will the nightmares ever stop?  After two years of coping with a global pandemic, humanity is now faced with images of Russian attacks on an operating nuclear facility.  V. Putin’s not-very-veiled threats to use nuclear weapons only intensify the Kafkaesque conditions.    In last week’s note, I stated that the odd decline in commodity prices at […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 4, 2022
The Semi Shortage Faces New Headwinds
Semiconductors have been described as “the brains of modern electronics.” The small but powerful chips are a critical component to today’s connected devices...
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March 4, 2022
Is the Buyback Bubble Ready to Burst?
This introduction to the latest chapter of Bubble 3.0 gives me the opportunity to highlight one of my most important and repeatedly emphasized topics:  Wrong cycle investing.  By that, I’m referring to the recurring tendency of most investors to buy high and sell low.  We all know we shouldn’t do that, but our very nature […]
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February 25, 2022
Positioning Recommendations - February 25th, 2022
The tanks roll, oil rolls over, and tech roars back! This is not exactly what a rational investor would have expected in the event of a multi-front invasion of Ukraine with Kyiv already under siege.  Perhaps this odd reaction is a function of the feather-light wrist-slap the West has administered to Russia thus far. Reportedly, Italian Prime […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 25, 2022
Putin on the Blitz  
Let me be the first to admit, the full-on invasion of the Ukraine is not what I thought was the most likely outcome to this crisis.  It seemed to me, and still does, that this an exceptionally risky military adventure by V. Putin.  The Ukraine is home to some 43,000,000 people who occupy an enormous […]
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February 25, 2022
Planning for Medical Costs in Retirement
Healthcare continues to be one of the largest expenses in retirement. While many other types of expenses tend to fall in retirement – such as entertainment and travel – the cost of healthcare continues to climb and represents a larger percentage of retirees’ budgets.
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February 18, 2022
Positioning Recommendations - February 18th, 2022
Another week, another tech wreck.  For growth investors, the echoes with 2000 are becoming deafening.  Battered high P/E stocks, which were down 50% in many cases as of a few weeks ago, just keep on taking a licking.  Yes, they’re still ticking—as in, ticking lower… and lower… and lower.  During the Nasdaq’s extraordinary slow-motion crash […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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