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February 18, 2022
Bubble 3.0, Chapter 7; What Price Bubblenomics?
The election of Donald Trump in 2016 was one of the biggest political upsets in US history. Besides his unlikely victory, another unexpected outcome was that his policies inadvertently led to the first implementation of the economic model detailed in Chapter Six: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Initially, though, Mr. Trump’s arrival at the White House […]
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February 11, 2022
The US Cash Cushion
The US economy is on course to undergo two major transitions this year. First, interest rates will go up as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. Second, economic conditions will get more volatile, as the government and the Fed cut back their stabilizing interventions and the private sector resumes prime responsibility for capital allocation.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 11, 2022
Bubble 3.0, Chapter 4; The Bubble That Keeps on Punishing
Do you ever wonder how we got into this mess?  By that I mean the situation where the Fed has printed itself into the tightest of corners, caught between an inflation problem, largely of its own making, and an inability to raise interest rates high enough to fight torrid CPI increases that have turned out […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 10, 2022
Positioning Recommendations – February 11th, 2022
As I hope all EVA Positioning Recommendation (PR) recipients are aware, our normal Evergreen Virtual Advisor newsletters are being switched out for the publication of my book “Bubble 3.0” via the increasingly popular financial social media service, Substack.  If for some reason you are not getting the email links to it, please let us know […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 7, 2022
Bubble 3.0, Chapter 2, The Worst Kind Of Bubble
Greetings, EVA and “Bubble 3.0” readers! Thank you for your continuing interest in this project.  Based on the flood of new impressions that have been generated, it does seem like the subject matter is of interest to a broad audience.  That has certainly been my hope but I’m gratified to see momentum building behind this […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 4, 2022
Positioning Recommendations – February 4th, 2022
The Most Dangerous Chart on Wall Street? Yes, I admit it.  The following image doesn’t look very scary--especially not compared with many of the market valuation charts such as the one immediately below it showing the towering price-to-sales ratio for the S&P--but please allow me to explain my reasoning.                         The first visual illustrates how remarkably […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 4, 2022
Chasing Decacorns: IPOs to Watch in 2022
Over 1,000 companies hit US public markets for the first time in 2021, shattering previous records. However, after a red-hot start to the year, shares of newly public listings reversed course towards the end of 2021 and into 2022.
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February 3, 2022
That Hissing Sound You're Hearing...
"I'm being modest when I say I'm the world's greatest day trader. My unlimited money has upgraded to infinity money. There's nobody who can argue that Warren Buffett is better at the stock market than I am right now. I'm better than he is. That's a fact."   David “Davey Day Trader” Portnoy, one of […]
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January 31, 2022
It's Launch Time, Part II
The main reason for this additional introduction to Bubble 3.0 is that you’ll quickly notice it’s Chapter 10, not 2.  Last Friday, I pointed out we’ll be pulling some chapters forward periodically when we feel there is a pressing reason to do so.  In this case, it’s the accelerating meltdown in the wildly speculative reaches […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 28, 2022
It’s Launch Time!
Quote:  “When enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation… (and) when the stock market takes on the attitude of a casino, the job (of capitalism) is likely to be ill-done.”  John Maynard Keynes “Everybody tries to compare this with ’99.  That was a bubble in technology… but it was a very, very narrow […]
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