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July 19, 2019
The Mysterious Case of the Elongated IPO
Ben Horowitz, famed entrepreneur and venture capitalist, once quipped that as a startup CEO he “slept like a baby [because he] woke up every two hours and cried.” As many others at the head of early-stage businesses can attest, Ben isn’t overreaching all that far in his comparison. While many factors play into the often-disrupted sleep patterns of entrepreneurs, perhaps the most jarring is the fact that the vast majority of early-stage companies are destined to flop. Statistically speaking, nine out of ten startups will fail.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 12, 2019
Bubble 3.0: The Post-Retirement Society
Many social commentators, probably rightly, assert that Western culture is in the post-phase: Post-modern, post-religion, post-civility, post-bipartisan, post-patriotic, post-prudence, post-hope, post-tolerance and, perhaps, most inarguably, post-truth. But the “post” that is the topic of this month’s installment of “Bubble 3.0” is based on the thesis that the relatively recent phenomenon of a comfortable retirement is now also increasingly a thing of the past.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 12, 2019
Likes/Dislikes - July 12, 2019
Evergreen Gavekal's Likes/Dislikes for July 12, 2019.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 12, 2019
The U.S.-China Showdown
A couple of weeks ago you read Gavekal Research's piece, Investing for a New Cold War. Today on the Evergreen Exchange, listen to Evergreen CEO Tyler Hay interview Gavekal founder Louis Gave on this topic and more, complete with thought-provoking debate and lively banter. The conversation between Tyler and Louis provides clarity on an issue that has dominated the news during Trump's presidency: will China surpass the U.S. as the world's greatest economic superpower?
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 5, 2019
Likes/Dislikes - July 5, 2019
Evergreen Gavekal's Likes/Dislikes for July 5, 2019.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 5, 2019
Investing For A New Cold War
As is often the case in the current news environment, the endless headlines surrounding the relations between the United States and China overshadow the substance of underlying policy and provide little added value to the public. While this may make for good political theatre, it leaves many struggling to grasp what has been developing not just over the past year, but quietly for the past decade. In this week's EVA, Evergreen Gavekal partner Louis Gave offers thought-provoking insights on the complex “trade war” being staged by the two countries. Louis—and the venerable Charles Gave, with his 50 years of investment experience—argue there are far bigger implications for the ongoing battle than just the balance of imports and exports. The following examines the events that have led us to this point, as well as the options that may be exhausted going forward.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 28, 2019
Likes/Dislikes - June 28, 2019
Evergreen Gavekal's Likes/Dislikes for June 28, 2019.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 28, 2019
Chartbook
In just six months, the Fed went from hiking interest rates to, as of last week, opening the doors for future interest rate cuts. This makes the hike last December look a bit silly given the stock market was in freefall, economic data was deteriorating, and trade tensions were escalating. To make matters worse, President Trump tweeted it is “incredible” that the Fed “is even considering another interest rate hike” before the Fed raised last December. Since then, the Twitter handle @realDonaldTrump has been exceedingly critical with regards to Fed policy and tightening too aggressively. It’s worth noting that almost every other president in history has steered clear of publicly criticizing the Fed, which makes this situation even more precarious and unprecedented.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 21, 2019
The Case of the Missing Inflation: The Changing Demographic Picture
Inflation is a fickle measure influenced by several economic variables. Over the last 100 years, the rate of price inflation in the United States has swung wildly, from upwards of 20% in the early 1920, to -17% a few years following, to a steadier rate in the low single-digits over the last 35 years.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 21, 2019
Likes/Dislikes - June 21, 2019
Evergreen Gavekal's Likes/Dislikes for June 21, 2019.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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