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November 17, 2017
Destination Reformation: The Dawn of A New Era in Central Banking
Conform or reform? In human terms, 500 years is a very long time. Yet, that’s how far back one of the most renowned Fed watchers is taking us in this edition of our Guest Evergreen Virtual Advisor (EVA). Danielle DiMartino Booth has previously been highlighted in these pages and she graciously gave us permission to run her recent missive: “Destination Reformation: The Dawn of a New Era in Central Banking”.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 10, 2017
Observations for Guiding Generational Wealth
Cornelius Vanderbilt died in 1877. His fortune was built in the railroad and shipping industry. At the time of his death, he had amassed a fortune worth an estimated $215 billion in today’s dollars (that’s more wealth than Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos combined). In 1977, roughly three generations later, the family gathered at Vanderbilt University (named in his honor) for a family reunion. One family member remarked that there wasn’t a millionaire left among all of the descendants. On the other hand, the Rockefeller empire chugged on like a freight train, becoming one of the gold standards in preserving legacy wealth. Obviously, two families starting with fortunes took very different paths.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 3, 2017
Market Melt-Up: Dead-Ahead or Dead Wrong?
In this exclusive Quarterly Webinar, David Hay reviews what's happening with central banks, inflation, the economy, bubbles and debt, yield curves and spreads, energy and the stock market.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 27, 2017
The Savings Glut's Long Life and Slow Death
Ben Bernanke popularized the term “global saving glut” in March 2005 when speaking to the Virginia Association of Economists in Richmond, Va. In his statement, he argued that several forces had created a high volume of global savings and that this “saving glut” helped explain the many years of historically low yields. And that was long before the Fed and its fellow central banks, through their coordinated actions, engineered the virtual extinction of interest rates!
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 20, 2017
Never Say Never Again (Part II)
In last week’s edition of our Guest EVA, we ran the first half of a condensed version of Grant Williams’ exceedingly popular Things That Make You Go Hmmm. No one ever accused Grant of short-changing his readers as his weekly missives often run to 30 pages or more. But they are chock full of some of the best non-consensus insights, spiced with biting humor, this side of another Grant (as in Jim Grant).
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 13, 2017
Never Say Never Again (Part I)
Definitive statements tend to separate “legends” from “losers”. “Legends” live in lore as women or men with the clairvoyance and courage to make a bold (and correct) prediction in a time of uncertainty. Think of Winston Churchill’s stirring speech: “Men will still say, ‘This was their finest hour.’ ”
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 6, 2017
Why Global Markets Will Shape Your Financial Future
The relative absence of borders limiting participation in global markets has enabled internationally-minded investors to find opportunities that domestic-minded investors might miss. Much like the Silk Road, which opened opportunities to traders throughout Asia, Europe, and Africa, those willing to invest internationally have generally been rewarded for doing so.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 29, 2017
Picking Up Millions in Front of a Steamroller
Warren Buffett is famous for his disdain of “investment strategies” that involve making small gains while taking big risks, even if those risks rarely erupt. He has described this approach using the above analogy, although he has said “pennies” instead of “millions”. In today’s $28 trillion US stock market, however, “millions” is a much more appropriate word.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 22, 2017
Robots Everywhere, But the Statistics
In early April, one of the “wise guy girl” talking heads released a video on the rise of robots where she claims that within a decade, we could be looking at dramatically different non-farm payroll data. In fact, she even quotes a Forrester study that suggests net-net, for every one job created, fifteen jobs will be lost.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 15, 2017
How Rain City Became Smoke City
The reaction to this edition of the Guest Evergreen Virtual Adviser (EVA) has the potential to be as incendiary as the subject matter itself.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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