Blog

March 10, 2017
The Opinion Exchange
The Opinion Exchange. One of our primary goals with this newsletter is to provide our readers with a wide range of viewpoints. As noted previously, the risk with this is that we don’t convey a clear idea of our actual views. Yet, we’ve always felt that’s a chance worth taking, particularly since we try to subsequently clear up any ambiguities.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 3, 2017
Strange Bedfellows: Angry Voters and Market Highs
Strange bedfellows: angry voters and market highs. It might seem odd, in the midst of the rampant bullishness engulfing markets since the election—and further stoked by Pres. Trump’s enthusiastically received congressional speech this week—to bring up the topic of social malaise. However, since Evergreen investment team members are congenital contrarians, we will do exactly that in this issue of the Gavekal EVA.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 24, 2017
Time for a Surreality Check
Time for a surreality check. Somehow, I don’t think I’m alone in waking up on certain mornings wondering into what parallel universe I’ve been transported. The daily surreality show I’m referring to includes, but is not limited to, watching what are decidedly unpresidential press conferences by our new president—not to mention an endless stream (of consciousness) tweets—and shockingly public feuds with the US intelligence community. These recurring events have caused global uncertainty surveys to go postal.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 17, 2017
The Great Inflation Debate
In the world of inflation, expectations are important. If you ask most people in the US what they believe inflation is expected to be, they are likely to say around 2-3%...why? Because that is what they have experienced over the past 5-10 years.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 10, 2017
Heed the Fed's Balance Sheet Banter
It is odd how a single event can cause some notable leopards to change their spots. In this case, the election of Donald Trump has caused reverberations throughout the financial world, and some apparent self-reflection by several of the world’s leading thinkers.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 3, 2017
Upsetting the Dollar Cart?
Upsetting the dollar cart? The year 1971 has been on my mind a lot this week. On a personal note, my wife and I have been staying at one of Arizona’s oldest and most charming resorts, the Wigwam, right outside Phoenix. It was established in 1927 by the Goodyear (as in tires) family on a “mere” 17,000 acres. Upon arrival in those days, guests were given a key—and a horse! Even on horseback, it must have taken weeks to see the entire spread.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 27, 2017
RVTV Interview
The investment landscape and headlines of today would be unrecognizable to someone who fell asleep six months ago and suddenly snapped awake. Financial markets have undergone a tectonic shift that few saw coming. Back in the summer of 2016, the prevailing belief was that central banks were all-powerful and would forever push rates lower in a continuation of policies followed since the crash of 2008. In a show of force, the Bank of England announced a fresh cut to their interest rate to fend off an economic seizure in the face of the Brexit decision, the European Central Bank re-upped quantitative easing, and the Fed was maintaining overnight rates at just above zero.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 20, 2017
Unexpected Outcomes
Evergreen initiated a slightly modified version of its annual forecast EVA just over a year ago. We shifted from specific predictions to attempting to identify developments that could catch the investment community off-guard. As we noted at the time, this was an unabashed imitation of what Blackstone’s Byron Wien has done for years (including when he was Chief US Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley). However, we also did this because it is the most unanticipated events that have the greatest market impact.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 13, 2017
A Tale of Two Halves
A Tale of Two Halves: If we simply evaluate global market returns last year, one might conclude 2016 was a fairly uneventful. Global stocks and bonds finished up 8%, and 4% respectively, which is generally what you'd expect in a typical year. However, if we dive a bit deeper "uneventful" wouldn't be an appropriate description.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 6, 2017
Bye-bye Buy-backs?
Bye-bye buy-backs? First of all, Happy 2017 to all our EVA readers! Hopefully, the coming year will provide an opportunity for those few remaining contrarians out there—amongst a swelling throng of passive investors—to generate respectable profits and nail down some attractive yields. It’s also my hope that what I’m going to convey next won’t severely undercut the happy New Year sentiments I’ve just expressed.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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