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April 27, 2017
Quarterly Webinar with David Hay (April 2017)
In this exclusive Quarterly Webinar, David Hay reviews what happened in the market last quarter and provides insight into his investment themes for the current quarter. You don't want to miss this! For access to this exclusive 40-minute webinar with David Hay, we are charging $9.99. Note: Clients receive all content for free. A link and password to view this webinar should have been sent to you via email. If you are a client and did not receive a link and password to this webinar, please email mjohnston@evergreengavekal.com.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 21, 2017
EVA Survey Results
Recent populist-driven election results underscore the truth that a race cannot be called until every vote is tallied. Remember the final polls leading up to November 8th? The New York Times predicted, with 84% certainty, that Hillary Clinton would be the next President of the United States. In fact, consensus polls didn’t have Trump within 1.5 percentage points of Clinton between June 2016 and election day.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 14, 2017
Buy-and-hold, the path to Gold?
Buy-and-hold, the path to gold? Nearly 25 years ago, Jeremy Siegel’s book, “Stocks for the Long Run,” hit the market. It was an instant bestseller, at least by financial book standards. His timing was propitious, since it came out in the middle of the biggest bull market in history.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 7, 2017
The Great Inflation Debate, Take Two
The Great Inflation Debate, Take Two. In our February 17th Chartbook EVA, we entered into the always hotly contentious realm of attempting to determine the true level of inflation and, closely related to that, its trend. It goes without saying—but I will anyway—that there are few areas where the words “Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who say they have found it” are more applicable.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 31, 2017
Health Care Reform, The Profit Illusion, and Hedges in a Bull Market
The sampler. This week’s edition of the Evergreen Virtual Advisor is a trilogy of recent short articles by three of my favorite thinkers at our partner firm Gavekal. The first is a timely essay by Tan Kai Xian (fortunately he is kind enough to let us refer to him as KX!). As you will soon read, he reflects on last week’s embarrassing flame-out of Obamacare reform and discusses the potential implications for tax reform.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 24, 2017
Common Misconceptions in the Market
Introduction This week’s edition of the Evergreen Virtual Advisor (EVA) is a return to one of our most popular formats, the Evergreen Exchange. This structure gives three members of our investment team the chance to agree, disagree, or simply comment on a topic of interest. The theme of this issue revolves around common misconceptions in the market.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 17, 2017
Fed Storm Rising
Fed Storm Rising. It’s been roughly 13 years since I borrowed—and modified—that title from Tom Clancy for our old hardcopy client newsletter, The Strategist. It was written during the early stages of the last Fed tightening cycle, a hiking campaign which was to last for two years, jacking up its overnight rate from the previously-unimaginable level of 1% to a peak of 5 1/4% in June, 2006. Despite the fact the Fed increased rates at 17 consecutive meetings from 2004 to 2006, the S&P 500 rose pretty much steadily throughout this period. Stocks even made a slightly higher high in October of 2007, in the wake of the Fed’s somewhat panicky 50 basis points (1/2%) cut, in September of that year, due to the escalating crisis in the housing market. On the day this sharp rate reduction occurred, the Dow spiked 2.5% while the S&P 500 vaulted an even larger 3%. Investors were clearly remembering the old Wall Street maxim that you don’t fight the Fed.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 10, 2017
The Opinion Exchange
The Opinion Exchange. One of our primary goals with this newsletter is to provide our readers with a wide range of viewpoints. As noted previously, the risk with this is that we don’t convey a clear idea of our actual views. Yet, we’ve always felt that’s a chance worth taking, particularly since we try to subsequently clear up any ambiguities.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 3, 2017
Strange Bedfellows: Angry Voters and Market Highs
Strange bedfellows: angry voters and market highs. It might seem odd, in the midst of the rampant bullishness engulfing markets since the election—and further stoked by Pres. Trump’s enthusiastically received congressional speech this week—to bring up the topic of social malaise. However, since Evergreen investment team members are congenital contrarians, we will do exactly that in this issue of the Gavekal EVA.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 24, 2017
Time for a Surreality Check
Time for a surreality check. Somehow, I don’t think I’m alone in waking up on certain mornings wondering into what parallel universe I’ve been transported. The daily surreality show I’m referring to includes, but is not limited to, watching what are decidedly unpresidential press conferences by our new president—not to mention an endless stream (of consciousness) tweets—and shockingly public feuds with the US intelligence community. These recurring events have caused global uncertainty surveys to go postal.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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