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December 30, 2016
Was Nixon Right, After All?
Legend has it that Richard Nixon once said: “We’re all Keynesians now.” In reality—and most ironically—those words were actually uttered years earlier by the ultimate anti-Keynesian economist, Milton Friedman. However, former President Nixon did riff off of this when he declared, after removing the US from the gold standard in 1971, “I’m now a Keynesian in economics.” Unsurprisingly, this turned out to be bad news for the American public as Mr. Nixon’s conversion unleashed a decade of stagnation and inflation. As a result, this wrenching experience produced a new term that the disciples of Keynes had previously believed was impossible: stagflation.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 23, 2016
Gentlemen (and women) don’t prefer bonds
Click here to view as PDF. “The world currently has an excess of every manufactured good.” -JOHANN RUPERT, CEO of luxury consumer products company, Richemont. “Clearly, our consumers’ budgets are pinched.” -Dollar General CEO, TODD VASOS First of all, Evergreen would like to wish all of its clients, friends, and EVA readers a Merry Christmas […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 16, 2016
Small caps, large prices
Click here to view as PDF. “The more certain something is, the less likely it is to be profitable.” -JIM ROGERS, acclaimed investor and former partner of George Soros “You can’t buy what is popular and do well.” -WARREN BUFFETT   Small-caps, large prices. It dawned on me in creating that section title how often […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 9, 2016
Only the start of the trumpflation trade
Click here to view as PDF. “Anyone who isn’t confused, clearly doesn’t understand the situation.” -EDWARD R. MURROW, journalist and war correspondent. INTRODUCTION In the cross-hairs of cross-currents. One of our main objectives in publishing the Evergreen Virtual Advisor (EVA) is to offer readers both our views and those that contradict them. Part of our […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 2, 2016
POPULISM TAKES A WRONG TURN AND INTERIM UPDATE AND COMMENT
Click here to view as PDF. “Would higher inflation lead to stronger equity market returns? Here the answer is a simple no. History has shown time and again that accelerating inflation leads to lower P/Es, and vice versa.” -LOUIS GAVE, founder Gavekal Research. INTRODUCTION KJR. For younger Seattleites, the sequential letters K-J-R are synonymous with […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 23, 2016
The Trump Trade
Click to view as PDF.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 18, 2016
(Too?) Great Expectations
Click here to view as PDF. “We don’t see things as they are, we see them as we are.” -ANAIS NIN, essayist “Education is a civil defense against media fallout.” -MARSHALL MCLUHAN, philosopher INTRODUCTION Our partners at Gavekal have long written about the four key quadrants of investing: 1) Inflationary booms (mid-1960s to early 1970s) […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 11, 2016
Stop the Presses!
Click here to view as PDF. “If Trump wins, I’m leaving the country. If Hillary wins, I’m leaving the country. This is not a political post; I just want to travel.” -ANONYMOUS INTRODUCTION Stop the presses! Writing a weekly newsletter is an interesting exercise in time-management, especially when it isn’t your real “day job”. Because […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 4, 2016
The Art of Unlearning
Click here to view as PDF. “There’s a huge layer of the economy unseen in the official data and…unaccounted for on the income statements and balance sheets of most companies. Free digital goods, the sharing economy, and changes in our relationship have already had big effects on our well-being.” -ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON and ANDREW MCAFEE, authors […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 28, 2016
Big government, even bigger sins.
Click here to view as PDF. “Impressive scholarly research has demonstrated that the government spending multiplier is in fact negative, meaning that a dollar of deficit spending slows economic output.”  -Economist and bond manager extraordinaire, LACY HUNT “And you experts in the law, woe to you, because you load people down with burdens they can […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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