Blog

June 16, 2017
Running of the Bulls
Much has been written in this publication’s pages about a forthcoming correction to the aging bull market. Last month, we wrote briefly about the first visible signs of chink in the armor when, on May 17th, the Dow Jones and S&P retracted -1.8% over reports that President Trump tampered with a federal investigation.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 9, 2017
Peak Oil Demand: Fact or Fiction?
The theme of this week’s EVA revolves around the topic of peak oil demand. Much has been written and debated about this recently – especially considering energy’s dismal start to 2017 and Trump’s recent decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 2, 2017
Momentous Minsky
Momentous Minsky. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, this newsletter praised an economist who never lived to see the ultimate vindication of his life’s work. His name was Hyman Minsky and as those of you who track the financial markets even casually know, we’re not alone in our fascination with his theories.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 26, 2017
The "I" Word
The “I” word. The word “impeachment” has been thrown around several times in the history of American politics. The first sitting president to be formally impeached was Andrew Johnson, in 1868, for abuse of power. Over a century later, Bill Clinton was the second US president impeached for perjury and obstruction of justice. Both were acquitted in the Senate, but their names will be forever associated with that long, humiliating “I” word.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 19, 2017
Bubbles, Bombs, and Buffett
Better to be lucky... One of this year’s “Unexpected Outcomes” from our January 20th EVA was that the long-comatose French stock market would be one of the world’s better performers in 2017. My rationale was that, at the time, Francois Fillon, a credible and reform-minded candidate, was leading the polls for president of France. Moreover, considering his flawed and/or relatively obscure opponents, his election looked highly probable.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 12, 2017
Social Security Trust: Time to Invest in the Stock Market?
To Invest, or Not to Invest, that is the Question. The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article debating whether the Social Security trust fund should be allowed to invest in stocks. The piece juxtaposes two opposing views; one side arguing ‘Yes’ and the other ‘No’.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 5, 2017
Dimon Vision
Dimon Vision. After spending almost four decades in the financial industry, I have many fond memories (along with some of the not-so-fond variety). Among my best are the times when I was privileged to work with Jamie Dimon in the 1990s. These were my—and Jamie’s—Smith Barney years and they were exhilarating.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 28, 2017
Around the World in Eighteen Minutes
Around the world in eighty days eighteen minutes. For all the non-bibliophiles reading this week’s EVA, Around the World in Eighty Days is a classic novel written by French author Jules Verne. While the book is fictional, it has inspired several real-life adventurers to follow in protagonist Phileas Fogg’s footsteps and circumnavigate the world in 80 (or less) days.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 27, 2017
Quarterly Webinar with David Hay (April 2017)
In this exclusive Quarterly Webinar, David Hay reviews what happened in the market last quarter and provides insight into his investment themes for the current quarter. You don't want to miss this! For access to this exclusive 40-minute webinar with David Hay, we are charging $9.99. Note: Clients receive all content for free. A link and password to view this webinar should have been sent to you via email. If you are a client and did not receive a link and password to this webinar, please email mjohnston@evergreengavekal.com.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 21, 2017
EVA Survey Results
Recent populist-driven election results underscore the truth that a race cannot be called until every vote is tallied. Remember the final polls leading up to November 8th? The New York Times predicted, with 84% certainty, that Hillary Clinton would be the next President of the United States. In fact, consensus polls didn’t have Trump within 1.5 percentage points of Clinton between June 2016 and election day.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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