Blog

August 12, 2016
Gavekal
Click to view as PDF. “Just because a reversal of something unsustainable hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t.”    -Seth Klarman, one of the most successful investors of the last 30 years. “There is too little economic risk-taking and too much financial risk-taking.” -Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) INTRODUCTION One […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 5, 2016
Quarterly Webinar (August 2016)
Click here to view as PDF. “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” -Famed German economist, RUDIGER DORNBUSCH “Risk is most dangerous when it is least apparent, and least dangerous when it is most apparent.” -JIM GRANT, Grant’s Interest Rate […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 29, 2016
Don’t Fight the Spread.
Click here to view as PDF. “I never give them hell.  I just tell them the truth and they think it’s hell.” -Harry S. Truman, aka, “Give ‘em hell, Harry” SUMMARY -One of Wall Street’s most strongly held beliefs is “Don’t Fight the Fed”. This means to be a buyer of stocks when it is […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 22, 2016
The Point of (Almost) No Return.
Click here to view as PDF. “Money won’t create success. The freedom to make it will.” -NELSON MANDELA INTRODUCTION The Point of (Almost) No Return. Long, long ago, back when the earth was cooling and I began writing this newsletter, John Mauldin was my role model. His Thoughts From the Frontline weekly missive had already […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 15, 2016
Vertigo isn’t just a Hitchcock movie.
Click to view as PDF. “When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.” -JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES referring to market bubbles. INTRODUCTION Vertigo isn’t just a Hitchcock movie. Is your head spinning? Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago when the […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 8, 2016
Pull it together, Dave!
Click here to view as PDF. “This is a supernova that will explode one day” -BILL GROSS on global government bond markets. Pull it together, Dave! One of my EVA goals for the summer has been to do an overview issue summarizing a number of Evergreen’s dominant views. It dawned on me over the 4th […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 1, 2016
FERGUSON VS. BURBANK, THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE
Click here to view as PDF. “Future economic historians will look back at the first quarter of 2016 as the turning point; that was the end of the hangover induced by the global financial crisis.” -NIALL FERGUSON INTRODUCTION Is it possible? Could it be true? Might Brexit actually be bullish for financial markets? Few would […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 24, 2016
BREXIT STAGE LEFT
Click here to view as PDF. “People willing to trade their freedom for temporary security deserve neither and will lose both.” -BENJAMIN FRANKLIN Introduction Hello darkness my old friend, I’ve come to talk with you again… The famous first line of the 1964 hit by Simon and Garfunkel The Sound of Silence feels relevant this […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 17, 2016
THE CHALLENGE FOR EQUITY MARKETS
Click here to view the PDF “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” -Mark Twain INTRODUCTION Last week’s EVA gave readers a healthy dose of Charles Gave. In this edition, we are highlighting some recent insights from his son, and Gavekal’s founder, Louis Gave. Louis […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 17, 2016
The Challenge for Equity Markets
This week, we are highlighting some recent insights from Gavekal founder Louis Gave. Below is a brief summary of his piece "The Challenge for Equity Markets." -Unsettling news—from a potential UK departure out of the European Union, to on-going terrorist attacks in the US, and America’s bizarre presidential race—is pressuring stocks. -As has been the […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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