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December 9, 2016
Only the start of the trumpflation trade
Click here to view as PDF. “Anyone who isn’t confused, clearly doesn’t understand the situation.” -EDWARD R. MURROW, journalist and war correspondent. INTRODUCTION In the cross-hairs of cross-currents. One of our main objectives in publishing the Evergreen Virtual Advisor (EVA) is to offer readers both our views and those that contradict them. Part of our […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 2, 2016
POPULISM TAKES A WRONG TURN AND INTERIM UPDATE AND COMMENT
Click here to view as PDF. “Would higher inflation lead to stronger equity market returns? Here the answer is a simple no. History has shown time and again that accelerating inflation leads to lower P/Es, and vice versa.” -LOUIS GAVE, founder Gavekal Research. INTRODUCTION KJR. For younger Seattleites, the sequential letters K-J-R are synonymous with […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 23, 2016
The Trump Trade
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By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 18, 2016
(Too?) Great Expectations
Click here to view as PDF. “We don’t see things as they are, we see them as we are.” -ANAIS NIN, essayist “Education is a civil defense against media fallout.” -MARSHALL MCLUHAN, philosopher INTRODUCTION Our partners at Gavekal have long written about the four key quadrants of investing: 1) Inflationary booms (mid-1960s to early 1970s) […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 11, 2016
Stop the Presses!
Click here to view as PDF. “If Trump wins, I’m leaving the country. If Hillary wins, I’m leaving the country. This is not a political post; I just want to travel.” -ANONYMOUS INTRODUCTION Stop the presses! Writing a weekly newsletter is an interesting exercise in time-management, especially when it isn’t your real “day job”. Because […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 4, 2016
The Art of Unlearning
Click here to view as PDF. “There’s a huge layer of the economy unseen in the official data and…unaccounted for on the income statements and balance sheets of most companies. Free digital goods, the sharing economy, and changes in our relationship have already had big effects on our well-being.” -ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON and ANDREW MCAFEE, authors […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 28, 2016
Big government, even bigger sins.
Click here to view as PDF. “Impressive scholarly research has demonstrated that the government spending multiplier is in fact negative, meaning that a dollar of deficit spending slows economic output.”  -Economist and bond manager extraordinaire, LACY HUNT “And you experts in the law, woe to you, because you load people down with burdens they can […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 21, 2016
The 5 Cs—Could Congress Create Consecutive Crises?
Click here to view as PDF. “Most investors are not well-equipped for an analysis of that kind (political risk). They built their careers crunching numbers, not pondering social science.” -The Financial Times’ GILLIAN TETT “The roughly $275 billion in legal costs for global banks since 2008 translates into more than $5 trillion of reduced lending capacity […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 14, 2016
ULTRA-EASY MONEY: DIGGING THE HOLE DEEPER?
Click here to view as PDF. “To combat the depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about.” -Economist FREDERICH HAYEK, as relayed by William White in his Adam Smith prize acceptance speech last month. INTRODUCTION No BS from the BIS. Few non-professional […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 7, 2016
DEBATE: A TRUMP WIN AND THE DOLLAR
Click here to view as PDF. “Each generation will reap what the former generation has sown.” -CHINESE PROVERB “If everybody is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.” -GENERAL GEORGE PATTON INTRODUCTION This month’s Gavekal-authored version of the Evergreen Virtual Advisor addresses what seems to be on everyone’s mind these days—you guessed it:  The US presidential […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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