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February 17, 2017
The Great Inflation Debate
In the world of inflation, expectations are important. If you ask most people in the US what they believe inflation is expected to be, they are likely to say around 2-3%...why? Because that is what they have experienced over the past 5-10 years.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 10, 2017
Heed the Fed's Balance Sheet Banter
It is odd how a single event can cause some notable leopards to change their spots. In this case, the election of Donald Trump has caused reverberations throughout the financial world, and some apparent self-reflection by several of the world’s leading thinkers.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 3, 2017
Upsetting the Dollar Cart?
Upsetting the dollar cart? The year 1971 has been on my mind a lot this week. On a personal note, my wife and I have been staying at one of Arizona’s oldest and most charming resorts, the Wigwam, right outside Phoenix. It was established in 1927 by the Goodyear (as in tires) family on a “mere” 17,000 acres. Upon arrival in those days, guests were given a key—and a horse! Even on horseback, it must have taken weeks to see the entire spread.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 27, 2017
RVTV Interview
The investment landscape and headlines of today would be unrecognizable to someone who fell asleep six months ago and suddenly snapped awake. Financial markets have undergone a tectonic shift that few saw coming. Back in the summer of 2016, the prevailing belief was that central banks were all-powerful and would forever push rates lower in a continuation of policies followed since the crash of 2008. In a show of force, the Bank of England announced a fresh cut to their interest rate to fend off an economic seizure in the face of the Brexit decision, the European Central Bank re-upped quantitative easing, and the Fed was maintaining overnight rates at just above zero.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 20, 2017
Unexpected Outcomes
Evergreen initiated a slightly modified version of its annual forecast EVA just over a year ago. We shifted from specific predictions to attempting to identify developments that could catch the investment community off-guard. As we noted at the time, this was an unabashed imitation of what Blackstone’s Byron Wien has done for years (including when he was Chief US Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley). However, we also did this because it is the most unanticipated events that have the greatest market impact.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 13, 2017
A Tale of Two Halves
A Tale of Two Halves: If we simply evaluate global market returns last year, one might conclude 2016 was a fairly uneventful. Global stocks and bonds finished up 8%, and 4% respectively, which is generally what you'd expect in a typical year. However, if we dive a bit deeper "uneventful" wouldn't be an appropriate description.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 6, 2017
Bye-bye Buy-backs?
Bye-bye buy-backs? First of all, Happy 2017 to all our EVA readers! Hopefully, the coming year will provide an opportunity for those few remaining contrarians out there—amongst a swelling throng of passive investors—to generate respectable profits and nail down some attractive yields. It’s also my hope that what I’m going to convey next won’t severely undercut the happy New Year sentiments I’ve just expressed.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 30, 2016
Was Nixon Right, After All?
Legend has it that Richard Nixon once said: “We’re all Keynesians now.” In reality—and most ironically—those words were actually uttered years earlier by the ultimate anti-Keynesian economist, Milton Friedman. However, former President Nixon did riff off of this when he declared, after removing the US from the gold standard in 1971, “I’m now a Keynesian in economics.” Unsurprisingly, this turned out to be bad news for the American public as Mr. Nixon’s conversion unleashed a decade of stagnation and inflation. As a result, this wrenching experience produced a new term that the disciples of Keynes had previously believed was impossible: stagflation.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 23, 2016
Gentlemen (and women) don’t prefer bonds
Click here to view as PDF. “The world currently has an excess of every manufactured good.” -JOHANN RUPERT, CEO of luxury consumer products company, Richemont. “Clearly, our consumers’ budgets are pinched.” -Dollar General CEO, TODD VASOS First of all, Evergreen would like to wish all of its clients, friends, and EVA readers a Merry Christmas […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 16, 2016
Small caps, large prices
Click here to view as PDF. “The more certain something is, the less likely it is to be profitable.” -JIM ROGERS, acclaimed investor and former partner of George Soros “You can’t buy what is popular and do well.” -WARREN BUFFETT   Small-caps, large prices. It dawned on me in creating that section title how often […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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