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September 30, 2016
How much does the stock market have left in the tank?
Click here to view as PDF. “But we are restricted from investing in that wider range of assets…it could be useful (at a later date) to be able to intervene directly in assets where the prices have a more direct link to spending.” -JANET YELLEN, responding earlier this week as to whether the Fed had […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 23, 2016
When the spread isn’t the thing.
Click here to view as PDF. “Central banks are the largest blind buyers in the world, accumulating trillions of dollars worth of assets with no thought of price, valuation, or exit strategy.” -Jones Trading’s MIKE O'ROURKE INTRODUCTION This week’s EVA brings the second edition of our new Random Thoughts format. The goal with this approach […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 16, 2016
FROM THE NEW NORMAL TO THE NEW CRAZY
Click to view as PDF. “Monetary policy is not a panacea…Most of the policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank.” -Former Fed chairman, BEN BERNANKE (in the days before he went all-in on Quantitative Easing—QE) INTRODUCTION This month’s Guest EVA is, in my opinion, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 9, 2016
THE RETURN OF US FISCAL POLICY, THE OTHER PROPERTY INVENTORY PROBLEM IS EVEN BIGGER, AND I MUST ADMIT THAT I’M CONFUSED
Click to view as PDF. “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” -ALBERT EINSTEIN INTRODUCTION In this month’s edition of our Gavekal-authored EVA, we are giving readers a sample of three different views from our partner firm. It’s fair to say that Gavekal’s deep team […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 2, 2016
Thermonuclear blast from the past.
Click here to view as PDF. “One way to make sure crime doesn’t pay would be to let the government run it.” -RONALD REAGAN SUMMARY -This Labor Day is bringing back haunting memories of the same holiday weekend eight years ago. -Back then, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson made the decision to place Fannie Mae […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 26, 2016
IS THE OIL CORRECTION OVER?
Click here to view as PDF. “He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.” -Hedge-fund titan, Ray Dalio “The central principle of investment is to go contrary to the general opinion, on the grounds that if everyone agreed about its merit, the investment is invariably too dear and therefore unattractive.” -JOHN MAYNARD […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 19, 2016
How Wall Street stole $100 Billion from investors and no one noticed
Click here to view as PDF. INTRODUCTION This week’s edition of the Evergreen Virtual Advisor (EVA) is a return to one of our most popular formats, the Evergreen Exchange. This structure gives three of our team members the chance to agree, disagree, or simply comment on a topic of interest (with the constant hope that […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 12, 2016
Gavekal
Click to view as PDF. “Just because a reversal of something unsustainable hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t.”    -Seth Klarman, one of the most successful investors of the last 30 years. “There is too little economic risk-taking and too much financial risk-taking.” -Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) INTRODUCTION One […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 5, 2016
Quarterly Webinar (August 2016)
Click here to view as PDF. “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” -Famed German economist, RUDIGER DORNBUSCH “Risk is most dangerous when it is least apparent, and least dangerous when it is most apparent.” -JIM GRANT, Grant’s Interest Rate […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 29, 2016
Don’t Fight the Spread.
Click here to view as PDF. “I never give them hell.  I just tell them the truth and they think it’s hell.” -Harry S. Truman, aka, “Give ‘em hell, Harry” SUMMARY -One of Wall Street’s most strongly held beliefs is “Don’t Fight the Fed”. This means to be a buyer of stocks when it is […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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