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April 1, 2016
QUANTIFYING THE FED’S IMPACT ON THE S&P 500
Click to view as PDF. CHAIRMAN WAXMAN: “You found a flaw?” MR. GREENSPAN: “I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works, so to speak.” CHAIRMAN WAXMAN: “In other words, you found that your view of the world, your ideology, was not right, it […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 25, 2016
THE GREAT EQUALIZER
Click to view as PDF. “Don’t you miss interest rates?” - JIM GRANT, founder, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer “The entire (financial) industry mindset is wrong here. And it’s a trap. When you promise something you can’t deliver, you structure your portfolio in ways that will kill you.” - ERIC PETERS, author of the Weekend Notes […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 18, 2016
CHANGE OF PACE
Click to view as PDF. “The mind of man at one and the same time is both the glory and the shame of the universe.” - BLAISE PASCAL, mathematician and theologian, after whom the computer language and operating system PASCAL was named CHANGE OF PACE By David Hay, Chief Investment Officer We would like to […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 11, 2016
Bulls vs. Bears
Click to view as PDF. “We really can’t forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can’t.” - Alan Greenspan SUMMARY BULLISH SUMMARY - The latest growth scare is over, and the US economy is set to accelerate. - The risks that drove the latest panic in global markets […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 4, 2016
HUNT FOR THE TRUTH
Click to view as PDF. “There is a meaningful risk that, come November, one of the people currently running for president will win.” - Barron’s Jack Hough. “If God had wanted us to vote, he’d have given us candidates.” - Jay Leno HUNT FOR THE TRUTH By David Hay, Chief Investment Officer Almost every golfer […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 26, 2016
SIX REASONS TO BUY GOLD IN 2016
Click to view as PDF. “Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history.” - Charles De Gaulle, Leader of the French resistance during WWII and 18th President of France SUMMARY - Gold bullion and gold mining stocks have […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 19, 2016
THE CASE FOR US TREASURIES
Click here to view as PDF. “The areas of consensus shift unbelievably fast; the bubbles of certainty are constantly exploding.” - REM KOOLHAS, RENOWNED DUTCH ARCHITECT AND HARVARD UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR SUMMARY - While conventional wisdom suggests that US government bond yields have nowhere to go but up, we believe the economic fundamentals will continue to […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 12, 2016
No thanks for the memories.
Click here to view as PDF. “It is better to be three hours too early than a minute too late.” -Falstaff, in Shakespeare’s The Merry Widows of Windsor. “Put simply, the Fed has created the third speculative bubble in 15 years in return for real economic improvements that amount to literally a fraction of 1%.” […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 5, 2016
BEAR MARKET BOUNCE?
Click here to view as PDF. “For those properly prepared, the bear market is not a calamity but an opportunity.” - Sir John Templeton SUMMARY - Stocks have rallied over the past couple weeks as (1) China drew down its foreign exchange reserves to stabilize its currency, (2) the Fed decided to delay its second […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 29, 2016
Is Wall Street in a Bear Market?
Click here to view as PDF. “We are of different opinions at different hours, but we always may be said to be at heart on the side of truth.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson This week’s EVA features two recent pieces: Is Wall Street in a Bear Market? by Anatole Kaletsky and Here Comes Daddy Bear […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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