Blog

April 6, 2018
Facepalm
The second quarter of 2018 kicked off with a bang as growing tensions in technology and trade sent investors searching for cover on Monday. In fact, it was the worst April start since… drumroll please… 1929.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 30, 2018
Collision Course?
Have you ever wondered what causes recessions and their close cousins, bear markets? In this month’s Gavekal Evergreen Virtual Adviser (EVA), my good friends Charles Gave and Will Denyer attempt to answer that question, one that has vexed economists and even Federal Reserve officials for decades.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 23, 2018
Fed Storm Rising, Part II
Nearly one year ago to the week, this newsletter made the wild-hair case that the Fed was serious about raising rates. At the time it was a contrarian call—as so many of ours are—because, for years, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen had consistently failed to “normalize” interest rates.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 16, 2018
The Trump Trade Tirade
In an echo of the early February market meltdown, panic unexpectedly shook markets as President Trump unleashed the opening salvo in his war on trade at the end of last month. Bloomberg even went so far as to dub the pull-back a “Tariff Tantrum” in an ominous ode to the Taper Tantrum of 2013.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 9, 2018
The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions
On September 22, 2017 we ran a piece from one of our trusted partners at Gavekal titled “Robots Everywhere, But the Statistics.” The main purpose of the research was to call out an area where real-world data didn’t jive with widespread belief. In a similar vein, this week’s Guest EVA comes from the voice of a world-renowned expert in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Rodney Brooks.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 2, 2018
A "Once in a Generation" Shift
This month’s Gavekal EVA is a body slam worthy of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), at least for those who expect the investment status quo to continue being so. What’s particularly noteworthy is, as you will read, this article was written before the market suddenly did a face-plant early last month (a pratfall it is reprising in recent days).
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 23, 2018
Going For Gold
The 2018 Winter Olympic Games are nearly behind us, and so is the latest chase for the ultimate sports prize: a gold medal.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 16, 2018
Unexpected Outcomes
First, please accept my apologies for a slightly delayed edition of our annual Unexpected Outcomes Evergreen Virtual Advisor. However, as most regular EVA readers know, we have run several forecast-oriented issues to kick-off the new year.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 9, 2018
The Biggest Bubble Ever
In this exclusive Quarterly Webinar, David Hay talks about “the biggest bubble ever” (0:20), the economy (5:38), the stock market (17:40), the bond market (28:00), inflation (32:53), central banks (35:05) and energy (38:36).
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 2, 2018
Big Questions (Part 2)
Another EVA, another chance to read the thoughts of one of the planet’s smartest men, Anatole Kaletsky! This week’s issue is a follow-up to the January 26th edition, also by Anatole, titled “The Big Questions for 2018.” Among those urgent queries is one I personally believe might be the King Kong of them all: is the global bond market on the verge of a meltdown?
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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