Blog

August 24, 2018
Bubble 3.0: Up From the Ashes
At the beginning of 2018, we initiated a new EVA series titled “Bubble 3.0” with excerpts from my upcoming book (tentatively titled “Bubble 3.0: How Central Banks Created the Next Financial Crisis”).
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 17, 2018
Capitalism: Why Chile is so Much Richer than Venezuela
It’s no secret that here at Evergreen we’re boisterous free-market advocates. Data and history show that economies operating freely in a system with moderate and rational government control perform better in the long-run. When economies are burdened by excessive government policy or overwhelmed with authoritarian control, nations become unstable, which often spurs abuse and extremism.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 10, 2018
The Recession of 2019
Towards the tail-end of July, the Commerce Department reported that Gross Domestic Product (also known as GDP), or the total value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at an annual pace of 4.1% in this year’s second quarter. As expected, President Trump took a victory lap around these numbers, which were the highest GDP growth results since 2014. (However, lost in the fanfare was the fact that the first quarter GDP number was revised down from 2.9% to 2.3%.)
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 3, 2018
Quarterly Webinar with David Hay (August 2018)
In this exclusive Quarterly Webinar, David Hay discusses what's happening in the economy (0:08), what could end “Bubblemania” (2:43), the yield curve and credit spreads (13:14), inflation (17:17), the US stock market (21:44), and overseas markets & energy (27:34). We have added timestamps above for reference in case you want to skip to the section, or sections, you care about the most.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 27, 2018
Reasons to Be Bullish About the Digital Future
In this week’s EVA, we are putting aside our concerns about excessive debt levels, reckless central bank policies, inflated asset prices, and widespread investor complacency to focus on the long-term promise offered by America’s technology sector. As you will read, there is a lot to be excited about over the next five to ten years and, in some cases, the future is now.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 20, 2018
The Debt Train Will Crash
In the financial newsletter industry, John Mauldin is like LeBron James. No one stands taller or is more popular than John with his million-plus circulation of Thoughts from the Frontline. Candidly, John’s work inspired me to start writing the Evergreen Virtual Adviser back in 2006 (so now you know who to blame!).
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 13, 2018
A National Security Imperative
In March, Evergreen outlined our near- and long-term concern for an escalating trade war in The Trump Trade Tirade. Well, ladies and gentlemen, it seems as if the worst has come is coming to fruition.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 6, 2018
Bubble 3.0: A Fast and Furious Challenge
First, please accept my apologies that this EVA issue, based on my in-progress book titled “Bubble 3.0”, is out of sequence. My intent was to run it as a later chapter in the actual book, but I was concerned that if I didn’t run it soon as part of our newsletter, I might miss my chance to create this on a before-the-fact basis. If you are wondering what that “fact” might be, it relates to my suspicion that we might in the final act of what I have formerly referred to as “The Great Levitation”.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 29, 2018
An Emerging Opportunity?
Over the last year, it has been a challenging environment for bond investors as interest rates continue to grind higher. Inflation readings registering multi-year highs are certainly one factor causing higher borrowing costs. However, perhaps the biggest influence on higher rates is the shifting supply and demand dynamic from fiscal and monetary policy changes. On the fiscal side, the tax overhaul, along with increased military and domestic spending, is expected to significantly widen our budget deficit, which means a surge in treasury borrowing.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 22, 2018
The Twisted Tie That Binds
Regular EVA readers are no strangers to Danielle DiMartino Booth, former senior adviser to Dallas Fed President Dick Fisher before and after the housing bust. Even sporadic viewers of CNBC are likely to have seen her repeatedly interviewed on nearly all things Fed-related.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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