Blog

September 16, 2022
Hedging US Volatility
By Tan Kai Xian On Tuesday, as the S&P 500 sold off so abruptly, the Vix index, derived from the implied volatility on S&P 500 options, climbed from 23.87 to 27.27. This illustrates the utility of exposure to Vix futures as a hedge for US equity portfolios. As the S&P 500 fell -4.3%, an index […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 2, 2022
VC Dealmaking Remains Strong Despite Public Market Volatility
VC Dealmaking Remains Strong Despite Public Market Volatility Private and public markets are inextricably linked. This crystalized in the first quarter of 2022 as public market volatility and falling valuations altered the VC landscape. For some, memories of 1999 and 2007 heightened fears that dry powder would evaporate and unleash a devastating blow to early-stage […]
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July 29, 2022
The Fed’s Reaction Function
By Will Denyer The Federal Reserve is on a mission to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. With both trailing inflation and forward inflation expectations running above policymakers’ comfort zone, the Fed will continue to tighten aggressively, most likely raising interest rates by 75bp, or possibly even 100bp, this Wednesday. [Editor's note: the […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 22, 2022
A Traffic Jam On The Internet Superhighway
The following article was originally published on Forbes.com by Evergreen Gavekal's Technology Advisor, Michael Johnston. If you think of the wireless internet as a multilane highway, we’re rapidly heading toward an inflection point. When the highway was first built by global mobile network operators (MNOs), there were fewer cars (devices) on the road. Now, however, personal computing […]
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July 8, 2022
Don’t Believe The US Recession Forecasts
Dear Clients and Readers,  This week, we are presenting a thought-provoking article from Gavekal Research's Co-Founder, Anatole Kaletsky. In his piece, Anatole shares a contrarian take on the current outlook for the US economy. While we don't necessarily agree wholeheartedly with his forecast, his viewpoint bears consideration, especially as the consensus for a recession continues to […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 24, 2022
Diet and Exercise…
In dieting and investing, it would seem that self-discipline plays a crucial role. So, what does self-discipline mean for investors? I think it can be a number of things, but here are some of the most critical elements as it relates to investment discipline.
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May 20, 2022
Inflation Infatuation
After over a decade of "passive investing" dominance, a shift is underway. Active management rewards investors who can skillfully blend between and shift within different asset classes, a seemingly fruitless exercise until recently. When everything is going up in value, there's little-to-no value in doing so. However, as of late, many Evergreen clients have benefited […]
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April 14, 2022
Announcement: Our First Haymaker Is On The Way
After almost 17 years, it’s time for me to bid farewell to an old friend, the Evergreen Virtual Advisor (EVA). Perhaps, farewell is a bit dramatic as EVA will continue to be delivered uninterrupted to its loyal reader base of nearly 9000 recipients. This newsletter has long struggled with a simple issue:  I am but one voice, yet Evergreen Gavekal as a firm has grown […]
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April 8, 2022
Positioning Recommendations - April 8th, 2022
“The Fed’s dual mandate is that of arsonist and fire brigade.”  - Jim Grant.  A Belated Epiphany It is my belief, based on years of observation, that if you want to know the truth about government agencies and their actions, listen to retired officials from those entities.  Once they have escaped the group-think environment, and […]
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April 8, 2022
Ride Away, Right Away!
“We were assured by policy makers that QE provided large benefits to the real economy.  If so, won’t its reversal in the form of QT come with a cost?  It can’t be all rainbows and unicorns.”  -Stan Druckenmiller and Kevin Warsh (the latter a former senior Fed official, referring to the Fed’s first round of […]
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