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September 7, 2023
What Are Banks Saying?
If money represents the lifeblood of the economic world, then commercial banks are the beating heart that pump it around the system. This is why several Gavekal indicators—notably our velocity indicator—are built around the absolute and relative performance of bank stocks. One rule of thumb states that a country or region in which bank stocks […]
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August 17, 2023
Strong Economic Momentum Leads to New Bull Market for Stocks
This edition of Evergreen Chartbook was recorded in a webinar format where Co-Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dicks discusses key charts driving this year's resurging stock market, current risks facing financial markets, and how Evergreen is positioning client portfolios.  DISCLOSURE: Securities highlighted or discussed in this communication are mentioned for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation […]
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August 10, 2023
Will Soft Landing Expectations Propel Markets to New Highs?
This week, we're presenting a thoughtful conversation between David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, and David Hay, co-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal. During the discussion, the two talk about recession indicators, investment implications, and whether soft landing expectation will propel markets to new highs. The discussion was recorded on July 18th, 2023 and is moderated by […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 3, 2023
US Treasuries’ ‘Risk-Free’ Status
In downgrading US government debt from AAA to AA+, Fitch cited a fiscal deterioration in the next three years, a growing general debt burden and bad governance due to repeated political standoffs over the debt ceiling issue. Coming a day after the US Treasury said new debt issuance would rise to US$1,007bn in 3Q23, up […]
By: Tan Kai Xian
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July 27, 2023
Does A Shift In Tone Signal Opportunity In China?
The investment landscape in China has always been characterized by uncertainty, as vast opportunities coexist alongside significant regulatory complexities and political considerations. While much remains unchanged in that regard, softening rhetoric from Chinese policymakers has given rise to the idea that beleaguered technology companies could be near a turning point. On July 7th, the China […]
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July 6, 2023
The Surprises Of 2023
We are now past the halfway point of the year and, like every year, events have occurred that were either predictable, understandable in hindsight, or genuinely came out of the blue. In the following pages, I will review the more important developments thus far in 2023, and take a stab at assessing what they tell […]
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June 8, 2023
Public Tech Markets Rally, Will Private Markets Follow Suit?
The tech-heavy Nasdaq has had an exceptional start to 2023, rising nearly 28% year-to-date. Last Friday, the Nasdaq capped its sixth consecutive week of gains, marking its longest winning streak since 2020. Nvidia's remarkable contribution to last week's risk-on run can’t be overlooked as the company briefly became the ninth-ever member to join the trillion-dollar […]
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June 1, 2023
The After-Effects Of The Debt Ceiling Deal
Saturday’s 11th-hour deal to suspend the US federal debt limit until 2025 will bring down the curtain on the political drama over the debt ceiling until after the 2024 election. But for investors, the story is far from over. The ripple-effects of the debt ceiling deal on financial markets and monetary policy are only just […]
By: Will Denyer
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May 25, 2023
The Importance Of Falling US Mortgage Rates
By Tan Kai Xian US mortgage rates have eased slightly in the last six months, with the average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages falling 70bp from 7.1% to 6.4%. Arguably that’s no big deal, given the rate is still more than double its level at the beginning of 2021. But moderating inflationary pressure, the […]
By: Tan Kai Xian
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April 20, 2023
Believe in Inflation Expectations
By Tan Kai Xian The US inflation data for March painted a picture of moderating price pressures, with the year-on-year increases in consumer prices, producer prices, and import prices all easing. But the messaging around inflation remains discordant. In recent days, financial luminaries including JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink at Blackrock and Bank […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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