Blog

November 23, 2018
The Uphill Struggle for Equities
This week started on another low note, as US equities tumbled on weakness in energy and tech. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 temporarily slid 10% below its record September close, while the Nasdaq fell to nearly 14% below its August high. In an equity market that has skated by whimsically on the back of relaxed monetary policy and historically low interest rates for nearly 10 years, trouble has not oft been on the mind of the fully-invested, US-concentrated, passively-exposed, large-cap investor. It seems as if we might have reached a breaking point.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 16, 2018
Briffits & Squeans, Blurgits & Plewds
How soon we forget. George Santayana long ago wrote these immortal words: “Those who cannot learn from the past are doomed to repeat it”. However, a more recent thinker took his observation one step further by wryly observing (with a little paraphrasing by yours truly): “And the rest of us are doomed to suffer along with them”.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 9, 2018
The Future of Tech Regulation
One of the reasons for the proliferation of technological innovation within the United States over the last several decades is due to its “lighter touch” on regulation when compared to global counterparts. Even when comparing the tech industry to other industries within the United States, the technology sector is the least regulated industry with just 27,000 federal laws verses 128,000 for the financial sector and 215,000 for manufacturing.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 2, 2018
Quarterly Webinar with David Hay (November 2018)
In this exclusive Quarterly Webinar, David Hay discusses what's happening in the housing market, credit spreads and US treasuries, small cap stocks, the credit bubble, US corporate profits, global trade war, US stock market, and echoes of October 1987.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 26, 2018
Are We Still in a Bull Market?
This week, we nearly attempted the delicate dance of running two chartbooks concurrently – one from our partners at Gavekal, and the other from the desk of Evergreen’s Chief Investment Officer, David Hay. However, after stepping back and examining the importance and timeliness of both presentation, and the challenges of weaving together different mediums and messages. we thought it prudent to separate the two and deliver them in back-to-back weeks rather than side-by-side in the same week.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 19, 2018
Siegel vs. Shiller: Is the Stock Market Overvalued?
In this week’s Guest EVA, we’ve got two of the financial world’s heaviest heavyweights weighing in on one of the weightiest investment questions: Is the Stock Market Overvalued?
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 12, 2018
Bubble 3.0: What Could Go Right
At the beginning of 2018, we initiated a new EVA series titled “Bubble 3.0” with excerpts from my upcoming book (tentatively titled “Bubble 3.0: How Central Banks Created the Next Financial Crisis”).
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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October 5, 2018
An Intelligent Dilemma
Last week, I had the good fortune of hearing two thought-leaders speak at separate events. One gentleman I listened to is a Corporate Vice President (CVP) at Microsoft and is leading the technology giant into its next phase of growth and development. The other gentleman was John James, a very impressive 37-year old running for US Senate in the state of Michigan.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 28, 2018
Seizing the Moment for Artificial Intelligence
The main buzzwords in today’s tech space are IoT (Internet of Things), Big Data, Cyber Security, Cloud Computing, Blockchain, and AI (Artificial Intelligence). While some of these terms might be unfamiliar to our readers, the various applications of these business opportunities in today’s connected world are nearly limitless. This has led to an influx of investment and interest in all of the aforementioned spaces – by individuals, Venture Capitalists (VCs), corporations, and governments alike.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 21, 2018
Bubble 3.0: The Biggest Bubble Inside the Biggest Bubble Ever
Are US stocks more overvalued than at any other time except 1929 or 1999? Or are they even more expensive? Or are they reasonably priced, as so many media commentators and Wall Street strategists contend? The answer sort of reminds me of the old story of various people applying to be hired as an accountant at a certain firm.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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