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February 28, 2014
February 28, 2014
“Owners of stocks…too often let the capricious and irrational behavior of their fellow owners cause them to behave irrationally as well.” -WARREN BUFFETT POINTS TO PONDER 1. Various prior EVAs have noted that bull markets rarely last as long as five years (this one will hit that age on March 9th) but, if they do, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 21, 2014
February 21, 2014
“Ahhh, Maggie, in the world of advertising, there’s no such thing as a lie.  There is only expedient exaggeration.”   -Cary Grant, playing Roger Thornhill, in Alfred Hitchcock’s North By Northwest. “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” -Jean Claude Juncker, in April, 2011, one of the most senior eurozone officials at the time. […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 14, 2014
February 14, 2014
"Consider the following simple, almost naïve question: Is it sustainable for an economy, which expands at a real growth rate of 2-3% per year, to provide a return (to investors) of say 10-15% per year?" -Didier Sornette, world renowned mathematician. Special message: This might be the only time you’ll ever receive an invitation to an […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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February 7, 2014
February 7, 2014
"In short, what the living wage is really about is not living standards, or even economics, but morality. Its advocates are basically opposed to the idea that wages are a market price--determined by supply and demand, the same as the price of apples or coal. And it is for that reason, rather than the practical […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 31, 2014
January 31, 2014
"An emerging market is a market you can’t emerge from in an emergency." -Don Coxe, for many years one of Canada’s leading portfolio managers and strategists. POINTS TO PONDER 1. The US trade deficit continues to narrow, and this improvement might accelerate given the US energy revival. This does pose problems, however, for the rest […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 24, 2014
January 24, 2014
"The typical secular bear market has multiple cyclical phases—and there will be more of these cycles before the current secular bear is over." -Ed Easterling, author of the highly regarded investment book, Unexpected Returns SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: For some of our readers, now may be a good time to book a trip. United Airlines chose to […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 17, 2014
January 17, 2014
"Never mistake a wish for a certainty." -Maggie Smith, as Violet Crawley, the Dowager Countess on Downton Abbey POINTS TO PONDER 1. Irrespective of the punk jobs number last week, it does appear US consumer spending ended 2013 on a robust note. Real consumer expenditures apparently rose 4% as the fourth quarter came to a […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 10, 2014
January 10, 2014
"If the experience of the past few years teaches us anything, it is that we should be cautious in our forecasts." - BEN BERNANKE, in his final official speech last week. Time rolls on! One of my friends has a less than elegant saying that is nevertheless quite accurate at my age: Life is like […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 3, 2014
January 3, 2014
"It is the long-term investor, he who most promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for the most criticism. For it is in the essence of his behavior that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average opinion." - JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES Special message: Although Evergreen expects 2014 […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 24, 2013
December 24, 2013
The Merriest Christmas On Record Louis Gave The United Nations recently released a heartening update on its "millennium goals" for the developing world, with many of its 2015 targets on the way to being met, or indeed already met. The target to halve the number of people living on less than US$1.25 per day was […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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