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September 25, 2013
April 13, 2012
"Risk is most dangerous when it is least apparent and least dangerous when it is most apparent."  -FINANCIAL NEWSLETTER WRITER EXTRAORDINAIRE, JAMES GRANT POINTS TO PONDER 1. Many pundits believe stocks are on the cusp of a new bull market.  However, the liftoff point for the last two times when stock prices roughly doubled (2003 […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
April 6, 2012
"Communism creates shortages, capitalism creates surpluses." -FORBES COLUMNIST AND NOTED ECONOMIST, GARY SHILLING APRIL 6TH, EVA Is risk-off back on?  It’s that time of the month many EVA readers look forward to—an issue that I don’t actually write!  This week’s "guest" EVA fulfills a commitment I made a few weeks ago to run an essay […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
March 30, 2012
"On balance, an assessment of a broad range of indicators suggests that a substantial portion of the decline in the unemployment rate does reflect genuine improvement in labor market conditions."  -BEN BERNANKE POINTS TO PONDER 1. Wall Street seems to have at best mixed feelings toward the Obama administration despite the fact that stock prices […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 10, 2012
"I never give them hell.  I just tell them the truth and they think it’s hell." - HARRY S. TRUMAN, 33RD PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES A Midwinter Night’s Dream. It’s easy to be a dreamer in Hawaii.  Between the leisurely pace and the paradise-found scenery, life’s cares simply drift away. The often ironic goodnight […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
May 4, 2012
"Europe is headed for a depression if it doesn’t figure out how to reform."   -JOHN MAULDIN, SPEAKING TODAY AT HIS ANNUAL STRATEGIC INVESTMENT CONFERENCE IN CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Recent EVAs have noted that growth in US after-inflation (real) disposable income is at recession-type levels.  Looking back over a longer time frame shows […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
May 11, 2012
"They are going to have to do something in Spain’s case.  This is a big economy and the banks are holed below the water line."     -SIMON TILFORD, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT THE CENTER FOR EUROPEAN REFORM MAY 11TH, EVA What price arrogance? An article of faith on the part of central bankers, along with most of […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
May 18, 2012
"Why save the bubonic plague?" -GAVEKAL RESEARCH'S CHARLES GAVE, IN AN INTERVIEW ON FRENCH TV THIS WEEK WHEN ASKED WHAT SHOULD BE DONE TO SAVE THE EURO POINTS TO PONDER 1. A recurring warning in numerous EVAs this year centered on the carefree attitude of the US stock market as the European crisis intensified.  Another […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
May 25, 2012
"Better an end with horror, than a horror without end." -AN OLD GERMAN PROVERB POINTS TO PONDER When titans, and their egos, collide. Just a few miles up the hill from the race track where, as Bing Crosby used to croon, "the surf meets the turf at Old Del Mar," the annual gathering of many […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
June 1, 2012
"When will market cycles be banished or made more muted?  That’ll happen when greed, human failings and herd behavior are eliminated.  Or, in other words, never."  -HOWARD MARKS, CO-FOUNDER OF OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT POINTS TO PONDER 1.  The euro currency’s fight for its life continues to dominate headlines worldwide, obscuring what is becoming an intensifying […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
June 8, 2012
"It’s not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change."  -CHARLES DARWIN And now for something almost completely different. John Mauldin has become a major force in the financial media through his weekly newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline.  His highly popular publication is received by […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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