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September 25, 2013
March 2, 2012
"Investing when something is undervalued and waiting for a return to normal valuation is called investment.  Waiting to move from fairly valued to overvalued is called speculation." - CHARLES GAVE POINTS TO PONDER 1.  The February 3rd EVA noted the persistent drop in US retail sales over the last three months of 2011.  In January, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
March 9, 2012
"Somehow, with QE everything, with a zero percent funds rate, with monetary ‘mastery’ from the people in Washington, I think the current system is leeching dynamism from this economy…"  -JAMES GRANT OF GRANT'S INTEREST RATE OBSERVER POINTS TO PONDER Papering over our problems. What is money?  While it might not be up there with "What […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
March 16, 2012
"We live in what most business commentators call a volatile world.  I would argue that when the environment is continuously unstable, it is no longer volatile.  Rather, we have entered into a new economic era.  It could remain this way for a long time." -GE CEO, JEFF IMMELT POINTS TO PONDER 1.  It’s common knowledge […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
April 27, 2012
"We can actually manufacture as cheaply or cheaper here in the US than we can in China." -DAVID ROBERTS, CEO OF INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATE, CARLYLE, REFERRING TO ITS TIRE OPERATION "The discovery and development of North America’s shale resources has the potential to be the most remarkable source of economic growth and prosperity that any of […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
April 20, 2012
"The idea that Chinese capitalism provides a blueprint for the rest of the world economy is an absurd exaggeration." -KENNETH ROGOFF, CO-AUTHOR OF THE EPIC WORK ON FINANCIAL BUBBLES, "THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT". APRIL 20TH, EVA In a recent EVA, I explained the sequence we follow for this publication. For those that might have missed […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
April 13, 2012
"Risk is most dangerous when it is least apparent and least dangerous when it is most apparent."  -FINANCIAL NEWSLETTER WRITER EXTRAORDINAIRE, JAMES GRANT POINTS TO PONDER 1. Many pundits believe stocks are on the cusp of a new bull market.  However, the liftoff point for the last two times when stock prices roughly doubled (2003 […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
April 6, 2012
"Communism creates shortages, capitalism creates surpluses." -FORBES COLUMNIST AND NOTED ECONOMIST, GARY SHILLING APRIL 6TH, EVA Is risk-off back on?  It’s that time of the month many EVA readers look forward to—an issue that I don’t actually write!  This week’s "guest" EVA fulfills a commitment I made a few weeks ago to run an essay […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
March 30, 2012
"On balance, an assessment of a broad range of indicators suggests that a substantial portion of the decline in the unemployment rate does reflect genuine improvement in labor market conditions."  -BEN BERNANKE POINTS TO PONDER 1. Wall Street seems to have at best mixed feelings toward the Obama administration despite the fact that stock prices […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 10, 2012
"I never give them hell.  I just tell them the truth and they think it’s hell." - HARRY S. TRUMAN, 33RD PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES A Midwinter Night’s Dream. It’s easy to be a dreamer in Hawaii.  Between the leisurely pace and the paradise-found scenery, life’s cares simply drift away. The often ironic goodnight […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
May 4, 2012
"Europe is headed for a depression if it doesn’t figure out how to reform."   -JOHN MAULDIN, SPEAKING TODAY AT HIS ANNUAL STRATEGIC INVESTMENT CONFERENCE IN CARLSBAD, CALIFORNIA POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Recent EVAs have noted that growth in US after-inflation (real) disposable income is at recession-type levels.  Looking back over a longer time frame shows […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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