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December 24, 2013
December 24, 2013
The Merriest Christmas On Record Louis Gave The United Nations recently released a heartening update on its "millennium goals" for the developing world, with many of its 2015 targets on the way to being met, or indeed already met. The target to halve the number of people living on less than US$1.25 per day was […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 20, 2013
December 20, 2013
"It’s not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change." -CHARLES DARWIN POINTS TO PONDER 1. Although the US energy renaissance is now well known, it is nonetheless impressive to view the degree to which exports are soaring and imports are plunging. (See Figures 1 […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 13, 2013
December 13, 2013
"Unfortunately, Mr. Paul has maintained his consistency by ignoring reality, clinging to his ideology even as the facts have demonstrated that ideology’s wrongness…" -PAUL KRUGMAN, referring to Ron Paul "The Fed never admits it, and the Congress disregards it out of ignorance, but the serious harm done by artificially low interest rates—leading to malinvestment, overcapacity, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 7, 2013
December 27, 2013
"Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything." -GEORGE BERNARD SHAW ‘Tis the Season. There’s just something about the holidays that makes it difficult to dwell on things like "secular stagnation," or "structural unemployment," or even "American Express Statement Enclosed." Rather, it’s a time to consider the eggnog […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 6, 2013
December 6, 2013
“We have nothing to fear but the notion that there is nothing to fear.”   -ED  YARDENI, Noted economist and stock market strategist “The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs.” -WARREN BUFFETT “It’s the swings of psychology that get people into […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 29, 2013
November 29, 2013
“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it.  If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.” -RONALD REAGAN “Monetary policy cannot be coherent unless fiscal policy is.”   TOM SARGENT, Nobel-laureate economist When all you have is a printing […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 22, 2013
November 22, 2013
“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.”  -GEORGE SOROS, billionaire investor “The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak.”  -JOHN HUSSMAN, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 15, 2013
November 15, 2013
“The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” -SETH KLARMAN, Legendary value Investor and long-time hedge fund manager Thank you for your interest in the Evergreen Virtual Advisor (EVA). Evergreen GaveKal’s e-letter, written by Chief Investment Officer David Hay, is delivered to […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 8, 2013
November 8, 2013
“On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?” -MATT RIDLEY, author of The Rational Optimist Even a close follower of economic and market dynamics might wonder what in the world robots and Fed policies have to do with each other.  […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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November 1, 2013
November 1, 2013
“Speculators often prosper through ignorance; it is a cliché that in a roaring bull market knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap. But the typical experience of the speculator is one of temporary profit and ultimate loss.” -BEN GRAHAM, the father of security analysis POINTS TO PONDER 1. Based on the fact that the […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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