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August 22, 2014
August 22, 2014
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.’ “ - Sir John Templeton “The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you’re a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!’ “ - Warren […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 15, 2014
August 15, 2014
“Better three hours too soon than a minute too late.” - William Shakespeare   POINTS TO PONDER 1. A recurring EVA subject of late has been the vulnerability of the lowest-rated bonds due to unrealistically puny yields, as a result of investors pushing the safety envelope in search of income. Beginning in late July, a […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 8, 2014
August 8, 2014
“I don’t want to go from wild turkey to cold turkey.” - Richard Fisher, Dallas Fed President, referring to the end of the Fed’s ultra-easy money policies “The problem with fellows [like central bankers], who believe that the markets cannot be left alone and need to be managed when the circumstances are exceptional, is that […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 1, 2014
August 1, 2014
“It’s funny. All you have to do is say something nobody understands and they’ll do practically anything you want them to.” - J.D. Salinger, The Catcher in the Rye “The investor’s chief problem—and even his worst enemy—is likely to be himself.” - Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Reinforcing Evergreen’s escalating concerns […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 25, 2014
July 25, 2014
"If the only reason you find for doing something is because others are doing it then that’s not good enough." - Warren Buffett Rebels with a cause. Fortunately for our sanity and overall life enjoyment, we’ve all met a few people over the course of our lives who are truly kindred spirits. In my case, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 18, 2014
July 18, 2014
"People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome." - George Orwell   POINTS TO PONDER 1. Although Evergreen remains convinced that the riskier parts of the US stock market are exceedingly overvalued, the Wall Street Journal’s Mark […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 11, 2014
July 11, 2014
"Watching neighbors get rich at the end of a bubble while you sit it out patiently is pure torture." - Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of $117 billion money manager GMO He who laughs last, laughs best. We all have our secret aspirations, right? In my case, I’ll admit that one of mine is to someday be […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 4, 2014
July 4, 2014
"That is going to be a huge challenge, to which I don’t have a great answer." - Janet Yellen, referring this week to risks from the Shadow Banking System Fireworks in our future? As perceptive EVA readers realize, today we should be running our Evergreen Exchange edition co-written by Jeff, Tyler, and me. However, as […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 27, 2014
June 27, 2014
"This environment is one that naturally encourages investors to use borrowed money to increase their exposure to risk…they will ‘ride the market’ until there is an unambiguous signal of a ‘turn’.’" - Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco’s former CEO Come on, Dave—pull it together! There’s not much quibbling that Evergreen puts out considerable quantities of information to […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 20, 2014
June 20, 2014
"In their efforts to promote growth and jobs, central banks are trading the possibility of immediate economic gains for a growing risk of financial instability later." - Mohamed El-Erian, former Pimco CEO POINTS TO PONDER 1, Although the US bond market is indicating economic softness, as are most major global debt markets, the relentless rise […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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