Blog

September 25, 2013
July 27, 2012
"Clearly, things are weaker than we thought when we made plans for this year." -UPS CFO KURT KUEHN POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Retail sales have now fallen for three straight months.  This has occurred just 2% of the time since WWII and in all instances except one (late 2000) the US was already in recession.  […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
October 26, 2012
"How many things we regarded yesterday as articles of faith that seem to us only fables today?"  - MICHEL DE MONTAIGNE, FRENCH RENAISSANCE PHILOSOPHER Land of the setting yen? After nearly 34 years in the investment business, one strongly and widely held view—clutched with almost religious fervor by millions of investors, academics, and policymakers—still leaves […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
October 12, 2012
"The US is the best looking horse in the glue factory." -ERSKINE BOWLES, CO-AUTHOR OF THE SIMPSON-BOWLES DEFECIT REDUCTION PLAN. "We have a leaderless government right now." -ALAN SIMPSON, THE PLAN’S OTHER CO-AUTHOR. A most important election. Presidential elections are almost always over-hyped. Typically, they don’t live up to their billing as the newly elected "messiah" […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
October 5, 2012
"Every monetary policy action has costs and benefits, and my assessment is that the potential costs and risks associated with these actions (QE3) outweigh the potential meager benefits."  -CHARLES PLOSSER, PRESIDENT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA POINTS TO PONDER 1. Looking at a collection of US economic data makes the stock market’s ebullience […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
September 28, 2012
"The fact that the Keynesians...are in total disarray just shows that their global explanation of how the world works is simply wrong.  If Keynesian policies worked France should be booming today."   -CHARLES GAVE The game that will live in infamy.  Silly me—after all these years I thought CNBC was actually a financial news network.  But […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
September 21, 2012
"What we need is a central bank that has the humility not to do what it cannot do. And the Fed cannot do what others have failed to do, namely to plan an economy from a central desk in the capital city."  -JIM GRANT, FOUNDER OF GRANT’S INTEREST RATE OBSERVER. POINTS TO PONDER 1.  The […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
September 14, 2012
"So there may well be reasons for market enthusiasm, but they certainly have nothing to do with the economy. As we saw in 2006-2007, the markets and the economy can enter into a trial separation for a period of time, but they never get divorced."  -DAVID ROSENBERG, CHIEF ECONOMIST AND STRATEGIST, GLUSKIN SHEFF This week’s […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
August 24, 2012
"We live in a technological golden age but in a monetary and fiscal dark age.  While physicists discover the so-called God particle, governments print and borrow by the trillions.  Science and technology may hurtle forward, but money and banking race backward."  -JAMES GRANT, AUTHOR OF GRANT'S INTEREST RATE OBSERVER. POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Despite lower […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
August 17, 2012
"It is the long history of humankind (and animal kind, too) those who learned to collaborate and improvise most effectively have prevailed. " -CHARLES DARWIN By now most readers expect to open EVA each Friday and read our take on the ever-changing financial markets. Occasionally, something arises that’s compels us to deviate from our normal […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
August 10, 2012
"This is the great danger America faces.  That we will cease to be one nation and become instead a collection of interest groups…each seeking to satisfy private wants."  -BARBARA JORDAN, CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVIST AND CONGRESSWOMAN A third way? Last week’s EVA was the first installment in a two-part series on what I believe is one […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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