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September 25, 2013
November 23, 2012
"The tax on capital gains directly affects investment decisions, the mobility and flow of risk capital" (as well as) "the ease of difficulty experienced by new ventures in obtaining capital, and thereby the strength and potential for growth in the economy." -JOHN F. KENNEDY POINTS TO PONDER 1. Over the last four years, when the […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
December 28, 2012
"Central banks cannot solve structural problems in the economy.  We’ve been saying this for years and it’s getting tiresome." -STEPHEN CECCHETTI, HEAD OF THE MONETARY DEPARTMENT FOR THE BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS (BIS), THE WATCHDOG OF THE WORLD’S CENTRAL BANKS. In awe of a master. Harvey Pennick was one of the finest golfers to come […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
January 4, 2013
"How long can the world’s biggest borrower remain the world’s biggest power?"  -LARRY SUMMERS, FORMER US SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY 1.  The US is presently trapped in the vise-grip of political paralysis irrespective of a less than impressive resolution of the fiscal cliff.  Fortunately, despite the utter lack of leadership from our elected officials, America’s […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
January 11, 2013
"The future price tag of printing six trillion dollars’ worth of checks comes in the form of inflation and devaluation of currencies either relative to each other, or to commodities in less limitless supply such as oil or gold." -PIMCO’S BILL GROSS 2012: Triumph of the Central Banks. Wow! Didn’t I just do one of […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
January 25, 2013
  "I cannot forecast to you the actions of Russia.  It is a riddle, wrapped in mystery, inside an enigma."  -WINSTON CHURCHILL The above line from Sir Winston, who unquestionably was one of the most prodigious quote-miesters of all time, could easily be applied today to that other former arch foe of the west:  China.   […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 1, 2013
“It is typical of government price-fixing schemes that they escape one undesired consequence only by plunging into another and usually worse one.” -HENRY HAZLITT, FROM HIS CLASSIC BOOK, ECONOMICS IN ONE LESSON. POINTS TO PONDER 1. There are several reasons why Canada appears to be one of the safest global venues for bond investors. Among […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 8, 2013
"The worst enemies of Social Security and Medicare are the people who say don’t touch (them). They are headed for a certain arithmetic catastrophe."  -PAUL RYAN The Great Inversion. We definitely live in a time of "Greats."  The "Great Moderation" was the long period of contained inflation, low interest rates, and steady growth that ran […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 15, 2013
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." -SIR JOHN TEMPLETON POINTS TO PONDER 1.  As our partners at GaveKal have repeatedly shown, US […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 22, 2013
"The idea that policy makers can perfectly unwind (their) unprecedented easing without some unintended consequences is theoretically possible but…unlikely." -MICHAEL HASENSTAB, MANAGER OF THE FRANKLIN TEMPLETON GLOBAL BOND FUND, RANKED NUMBER ONE AMONG ITS PEERS OVER THE LAST DECADE. The cover story curse. The notion that the front covers of leading magazines are reliable contrary indicators […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 6, 2013
We realize that GaveKal Research is not a household name to most investors.  Of course, EVA readers are not most investors!  Those of you who take the time to read EVA on a regular basis by definition have a higher level of interest in the financial markets and economic trends. Over the years, you have […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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