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January 23, 2015
Evergreen Virtual Advisor - Guest: Ben Hunt
When I was growing up, it was almost a rite of passage to read Joseph Heller’s iconoclastic novel about a war-weary WWII bombardier, Catch-22. For those unfamiliar with the story, the book’s protagonist finds himself in a classic no-win situation—a condition that may have direct applicability to the current investment environment. This edition of our […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 16, 2015
January 16, 2015
"Sir: The next financial apocalypse is imminent. I know this to be true because the House and Home section is now assuming the epic proportions last seen before the great crash. 24 pages chock full of adverts for mansions and wicker tea trays for $1,000. You’re all mad. Sell everything and run for your lives." […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 16, 2015
Evergreen Exchange
It’s fair to say that repeated warnings in this newsletter about the overvaluation of the US stock market have been, to say the least, "premature." However, our cautions about the junkier reaches of the high yield market, as well as leveraged bank loans, were quite timely. As is so often the case, extreme inflows into […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 12, 2015
Weekly Insights
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By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 9, 2015
January 9, 2015
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." - John Kenneth Galbraith, one of the 20th Century’s most venerated economists Another year, another blur. Every year I’m struck by how quickly it’s time to write our annual forecast EVA, and this year is no exception. It continues to be my belief […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 9, 2015
Evergreen Virtual Advisor - Annual Forecast
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” - John Kenneth Galbraith, one of the 20th Century’s most venerated economists Another year, another blur.  Every year I’m struck by how quickly it’s time to write our annual forecast EVA, and this year is no exception. It continues to be my belief […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 5, 2015
Weekly Insights
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By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 2, 2015
January 2, 2015
"Safety’ is a tricky and paradoxical concept. The safe assets are often the ones most people regard as hopelessly risky." - Jim Grant, acclaimed author of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer POINTS TO PONDER 1. The chart shown below, courtesy of the financial blog Hedgopia, vividly illustrates the incongruity between US capacity utilization (essentially tracking how […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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January 2, 2015
Evergreen Virtual Advisor
“Safety’ is a tricky and paradoxical concept. The safe assets are often the ones most people regard as hopelessly risky.” - Jim Grant, acclaimed author of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer POINTS TO PONDER 1. The chart shown below, courtesy of the financial blog Hedgopia, vividly illustrates the incongruity between US capacity utilization (essentially tracking how […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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December 26, 2014
December 26, 2014
"A stable market breeds complacency. Complacency breeds bad investing behavior. Bad investing behavior breeds regret." - The Motley Fool’s Morgan Housel "Common sense is not so common." - Voltaire What’s that smell? If you detect a distinct odor of smoke in the air, it’s likely coming from that blazing source known as the S&P 500. […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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