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August 30, 2013
August 30, 2013
"Higher markets in the face of eroding fundamentals can be a toxic combination."  -Super-investor, SETH KLARMAN Who knew? No one has ever accused me of being politically correct.  However, I do try to avoid being politically offensive; therefore, in this week’s EVA, I’m going to carefully venture into potentially dangerous terrain.  To begin down this […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 23, 2013
August 23, 2013
"We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money." -JIM CRAMER POINTS TO PONDER 1.  The contrast among a soaring stock market, rising interest rates, and flaccid corporate profits has become more vivid.   Excluding financials, S&P 500 earnings are on track to actually decline in the second […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 16, 2013
August 16, 2013
"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs." -WARREN BUFFETT Why is it that bull markets take on a life of their own, often rising much more than fundamentals dictate?   While there are multiple answers to that multi-trillion-dollar question, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 9, 2013
August 9, 2013
"A masterly retreat is itself a victory." -NORMAN VINCENT PEALE POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Evergreen GaveKal had a cautious view of most investment sectors over the last year.  Although this stance has been off the mark with regard to the US stock market, at least thus far, it has been correct in terms of most […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 2, 2013
August 2, 2013
"Fed policy has had a distorting effect on capital allocations decisions of all kinds at virtually every level of the economy.  It is a very large and dull hammer for markets." -RICK REIDER, Manager of $760 billion in fixed income assets at BlackRock. Too much cheesecake? EVA  readers might find this surprising, but I actually […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 26, 2013
July 26, 2013
"Buy, buy, buy, says the sign in the shop window.  Why, why, why, says the junk in the backyard?"  -PAUL MCCARTNEY  "Ahhh…Wings, the band the Beatles could have become."  -BRITISH  COMEDIAN, ALAN PARTRIDGE Get back to where you once belonged. Admittedly, my mind is wired differently than those of most members of the human species.  […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 19, 2013
July 19, 2013
"Those classes of investments considered ‘best’ change from period, to period. The pathetic fallacy is what are thought to be the best are in truth only the most popular—the most active, the most talked of, the most boosted, and consequently, the highest in price at that time." -FRED SCHWED, Author of "Where are the Customer’s […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 12, 2013
July 12, 2013
"Money does not create wealth. Wealth creates money." -CHARLES GAVE Wanted:  Market strategist, one arm missing. It wasn’t just Dr. Richard Kimble, of The Fugitive  fame, who was frantically seeking answers from a one-armed individual.  President Harry Truman, after listening to the equivocations from his team of economists, "On the one hand, but on the other…," […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 28, 2013
June 28, 2013
“Frankly, I view the present course of monetary policy as reckless—not because it threatens inflation (which I don’t think it will for several years), but because it diverts scarce capital away from productive investment and toward speculative activities.” -JOHN HUSSMAN, highly regarded money manager. Special Message: Due to the turbulent market conditions, particularly in yield […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 21, 2013
June 21, 2013
"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing—once they’ve tried everything else." -WINSTON CHURCHILL Special message: Several past EVAs have described the investment process popularly known as the "carry trade." As a refresher, this involves hedge funds, propriety trading desks of large financial institutions, and even closed-end mutual funds, borrowing short-term in […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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