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July 25, 2014
July 25, 2014
"If the only reason you find for doing something is because others are doing it then that’s not good enough." - Warren Buffett Rebels with a cause. Fortunately for our sanity and overall life enjoyment, we’ve all met a few people over the course of our lives who are truly kindred spirits. In my case, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 18, 2014
July 18, 2014
"People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome." - George Orwell   POINTS TO PONDER 1. Although Evergreen remains convinced that the riskier parts of the US stock market are exceedingly overvalued, the Wall Street Journal’s Mark […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 11, 2014
July 11, 2014
"Watching neighbors get rich at the end of a bubble while you sit it out patiently is pure torture." - Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of $117 billion money manager GMO He who laughs last, laughs best. We all have our secret aspirations, right? In my case, I’ll admit that one of mine is to someday be […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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July 4, 2014
July 4, 2014
"That is going to be a huge challenge, to which I don’t have a great answer." - Janet Yellen, referring this week to risks from the Shadow Banking System Fireworks in our future? As perceptive EVA readers realize, today we should be running our Evergreen Exchange edition co-written by Jeff, Tyler, and me. However, as […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 27, 2014
June 27, 2014
"This environment is one that naturally encourages investors to use borrowed money to increase their exposure to risk…they will ‘ride the market’ until there is an unambiguous signal of a ‘turn’.’" - Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco’s former CEO Come on, Dave—pull it together! There’s not much quibbling that Evergreen puts out considerable quantities of information to […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 20, 2014
June 20, 2014
"In their efforts to promote growth and jobs, central banks are trading the possibility of immediate economic gains for a growing risk of financial instability later." - Mohamed El-Erian, former Pimco CEO POINTS TO PONDER 1, Although the US bond market is indicating economic softness, as are most major global debt markets, the relentless rise […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 13, 2014
June 13, 2014
"We learn from history that we do not learn from history." - Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (courtesy of John Hussman from his June 14, 2014 Weekly Market Comment) The next 20%? It’s not often when my colleague, Anatole Kaletsky, and fund managers Jeremy Grantham and Bill Miller all agree. But, lately, they each have come […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 6, 2014
June 6, 2014
"I don’t expect the consensus to be right, I’m just surprised by how wrong it has been." - Fixed-income specialist Jim Bianco, referring to this year’s unexpected bond rally POINTS TO PONDER 1. While most economists have dismissed the US economy’s contraction in the first quarter as a consequence of the extremely severe winter weather, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 30, 2014
May 30, 2014
"You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave." -The Eagles, from their classic song, "Hotel California" The Immaculate correction. Maybe it really is that painless. Perhaps it is possible that US stocks can go through a series of rolling, sector-specific corrections that eliminate the need for a broad market sell-off. […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 23, 2014
May 23, 2014
"Knowledge is power only if man knows what facts not to bother about." -Robert Lynd, sociologist 1. For many years, this newsletter has urged its readers to ignore inflation worries. Lately, though, we have begun to see some indications that consumer prices may be heating up. One of the more intriguing is the growing divergence […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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