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September 24, 2013
March 29, 2012
"The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining." -JOHN F. KENNEDY Special message:  In the March 15th EVA, I emphasized that insider selling was running at an extreme rate.  While this is true, the day after that edition went out, the Wall Street Journal ran an article quoting an insider trading […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 24, 2013
March 22, 2013
"It’s not what you don’t know that kills you, it’s what you know for sure that ain’t true." -MARK TWAIN Often unknowingly, we perform risk-reward calculations in our daily lives. Something as basic as eating dinner at a restaurant involves risk, though you may not realize it.  You risk injury as you commute to that […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 23, 2013
March 15, 2013
"You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you.  You are right because your data and reasoning are right." -BEN GRAHAM, WARREN BUFFET'S STOCK MARKET MENTOR In this latest issue of Points to Ponder, we are altering our usual format a bit to include one of the more interesting items I’ve come […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 23, 2013
March 8, 2013
  "Everybody that manages money is waiting to catch the signal that the Fed will reverse course.  I think they’re on a hair trigger.  So I think the Fed will try to give little signals…but, in the end, there are an awful lot of people that want to get out of a lot of assets […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 23, 2013
March 1, 2013
"When I find myself on the side of the majority, I know it’s time to find a new place to side."  -MARK TWAIN 1.  Post-financial crisis market rallies have tended to run out of steam when Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus Stock Index has hit current levels. (See Figure 1) 2.  Although bonds have generated higher […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 20, 2013
September 20, 2013
"Forget whether one is bullish or bearish, hawkish or dovish, a Central Bank with no credibility is dangerous."  -MIKE O’ROURKE, author of The Closing Print POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Four and a half years ago, during the worst bear market since the 1930s, a vocal chorus of chronically gloomy gurus was gleefully pointing out that […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 13, 2013
September 13, 2013
"Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights." -ALAN GREENSPAN, 1966 It may come as somewhat of a shock to even casual EVA readers, who would have had a hard time missing my repeated […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 6, 2013
September 6, 2013
"If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd."  -SIR JOHN TEMPLETON POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Significant outflows from an investment sector have consistently provided excellent buy signals over the years.  If past is prologue, emerging market bonds should be at least gradually accumulated by […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 30, 2013
August 30, 2013
"Higher markets in the face of eroding fundamentals can be a toxic combination."  -Super-investor, SETH KLARMAN Who knew? No one has ever accused me of being politically correct.  However, I do try to avoid being politically offensive; therefore, in this week’s EVA, I’m going to carefully venture into potentially dangerous terrain.  To begin down this […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 23, 2013
August 23, 2013
"We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money." -JIM CRAMER POINTS TO PONDER 1.  The contrast among a soaring stock market, rising interest rates, and flaccid corporate profits has become more vivid.   Excluding financials, S&P 500 earnings are on track to actually decline in the second […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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