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May 23, 2014
May 23, 2014
"Knowledge is power only if man knows what facts not to bother about." -Robert Lynd, sociologist 1. For many years, this newsletter has urged its readers to ignore inflation worries. Lately, though, we have begun to see some indications that consumer prices may be heating up. One of the more intriguing is the growing divergence […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 16, 2014
May 16, 2014
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety), by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." -H.L. Mencken If it’s May, it must be Mauldin. As avid EVA readers are aware, this is the time of year for […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 9, 2014
May 9, 2014
“It’s in human nature to go to excess.” -Warren Buffett POINTS TO PONDER 1.  One of the more heartening aspects of the US economy’s otherwise lackluster recovery is the solid performance by the private sector.  On the flip side, a surge in medical expenditures, due to the previously uninsured now being covered by Obamacare, has […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 2, 2014
May 2, 2014
“The Greek economy is not in recession.  Nor is it recovering.  It has collapsed.”  -Wolfgang Munchau of The Financial Times Much to be humble about…  When you write a financial newsletter, it’s easy to fall into a dangerous trap. If you’re not careful, your readers can start to accord you guru status, or, even worse, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 25, 2014
April 25, 2014
“I’m convinced that everything that’s important in investing is counterintuitive, and everything that’s obvious is wrong.” -Superstar investor, Howard Marks, from his acclaimed recent essay Dare to be Great II POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Most economists seem to believe the negative effects of last year’s massive tax hike impacted 2013 economic activity. However, with affluent […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 18, 2014
April 18, 2014
“History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums.” -Alan Greenspan Brilliant bookends.  As many EVA readers know, Evergreen was extremely fortunate to have both Louis Gave and Grant Williams co-present, along with yours truly, at our February Annual Outlook event. Just as serendipitously, Mauldin Economics offered to record […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 11, 2014
April 11, 2014
“A leader does not deserve the name unless he is willing to occasionally stand alone.” -Henry Kissinger “Deep doubts, deep wisdom; small doubts, little wisdom.” -Chinese proverb POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Last week’s EVA made the case that US productivity growth has slowed dramatically since the new millennium began. The following chart makes that clear […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 4, 2014
April 4, 2014
 “We’ve gone back into this kind of a foie-gras bubble environment.  We’re all being force-fed risk assets.  It’s an unpleasant experience when you’re playing goose to the central bank farmer.”   -James Montier, strategist at elite money manager, GMO “Unless countries come together to take the right kind of policy measures, we could be facing […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 28, 2014
March 28, 2014
“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” -Warren Buffett Special message:  Thanks to your loyal readership, as well as your advocacy, we recently eclipsed 5000 readers of our weekly e-letter. The intent of the Evergreen Virtual Advisor (EVA) is twofold. First, we try to convey to our clients the rationale for decisions […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 21, 2014
March 21, 2014
“Americans were not put on this earth to become managers of decline.”   -Ronald Reagan  “Humans are…guided by the immediate emotional impact of gains and losses, not by the long-term prospects of wealth.” -Nobel laureate, and behavioral investing pioneer, Daniel Kahneman Blessing counting time.  The stock market is overrated—note, I didn’t say overvalued (even though […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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