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September 25, 2013
January 11, 2013
"The future price tag of printing six trillion dollars’ worth of checks comes in the form of inflation and devaluation of currencies either relative to each other, or to commodities in less limitless supply such as oil or gold." -PIMCO’S BILL GROSS 2012: Triumph of the Central Banks. Wow! Didn’t I just do one of […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
January 18, 2013
"Anyone who isn’t confused really doesn’t understand the situation." -EDWARD R. MURROW, JOURNALIST POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Until recently, it appeared as though the very sub-par expansion in the wake of the Great Recession was coming to an inglorious end.  Over the last couple of months, however, industrial production and employment have both rebounded sharply.  […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
January 25, 2013
  "I cannot forecast to you the actions of Russia.  It is a riddle, wrapped in mystery, inside an enigma."  -WINSTON CHURCHILL The above line from Sir Winston, who unquestionably was one of the most prodigious quote-miesters of all time, could easily be applied today to that other former arch foe of the west:  China.   […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 1, 2013
“It is typical of government price-fixing schemes that they escape one undesired consequence only by plunging into another and usually worse one.” -HENRY HAZLITT, FROM HIS CLASSIC BOOK, ECONOMICS IN ONE LESSON. POINTS TO PONDER 1. There are several reasons why Canada appears to be one of the safest global venues for bond investors. Among […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 8, 2013
"The worst enemies of Social Security and Medicare are the people who say don’t touch (them). They are headed for a certain arithmetic catastrophe."  -PAUL RYAN The Great Inversion. We definitely live in a time of "Greats."  The "Great Moderation" was the long period of contained inflation, low interest rates, and steady growth that ran […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 15, 2013
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." -SIR JOHN TEMPLETON POINTS TO PONDER 1.  As our partners at GaveKal have repeatedly shown, US […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 22, 2013
"The idea that policy makers can perfectly unwind (their) unprecedented easing without some unintended consequences is theoretically possible but…unlikely." -MICHAEL HASENSTAB, MANAGER OF THE FRANKLIN TEMPLETON GLOBAL BOND FUND, RANKED NUMBER ONE AMONG ITS PEERS OVER THE LAST DECADE. The cover story curse. The notion that the front covers of leading magazines are reliable contrary indicators […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 25, 2013
February 6, 2013
We realize that GaveKal Research is not a household name to most investors.  Of course, EVA readers are not most investors!  Those of you who take the time to read EVA on a regular basis by definition have a higher level of interest in the financial markets and economic trends. Over the years, you have […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 24, 2013
May 17, 2013
"The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than their minds."  -WILL DURANT, author of The Story of Civilization Thanks,  Sunny Jim! One of the joys of approaching 60, and having led a fairly active life, is that body parts, such as joints and cartilage, begin […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 24, 2013
May 10, 2013
“There are no new eras-excesses are never permanent." -BOB FARRELL, famed market technician POINTS TO PONDER 1. The economic forecasting firm ECRI, which has built one of the most accurate predictive records in the field, is still calling for a US recession. However, this view is looking increasingly premature and now its leading index is […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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