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October 3, 2014
October 3, 2014
"I recently tried to refinance my mortgage and was unsuccessful in doing so. I think the tightness of mortgage credit—lending—is still probably excessive." - Ben Bernanke, speaking at a conference earlier this week "There are cracks emerging in the Teflon tape that is the S&P 500." - Mike O’Rourke, author of The Closing Print and […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 26, 2014
September 26, 2014
"I don’t think the words ‘dual mandate’ crossed my lips in eight years. If prices are stable, that (is) good for employment." - Paul Volcker, referring to his time as Fed chairman, in a speech this week to the Economic Club of NY POINTS TO PONDER 1. Inflation has moderated in the US recently, but […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 19, 2014
September 19, 2014
"Money amplifies our tendency to overreact, to swing from exuberance when things are going well to deep depression when they go wrong." - Economist and historian, Niall Ferguson Future bull. Let me admit up front that this EVA has been rolling around in my mind for quite awhile. Its genesis may be directly related to […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 12, 2014
September 12, 2014
"No one can possibly achieve any real and lasting success or get rich in business by being a conformist." - J. Paul Getty "If you’re looking where everybody else is looking, you’re looking in the wrong spot." - Mark Cuban, technology entrepreneur and owner of the Dallas Mavericks   POINTS TO PONDER 1. Capital spending […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 5, 2014
September 5, 2014
"The worst evils mankind ever had to endure were inflicted by bad governments." - Ludwig von Mises, economist Brock Solid. In a world seemingly infatuated with the power of central bank printing presses, Woody Brock is a refreshing iconoclast. This is particularly true given his resoundingly upbeat message despite his criticisms of overreliance on monetary […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 29, 2014
August 29, 2014
"The Fed is distorting markets and risking asset bubbles by keeping real rates negative when real growth rates are positive—the excess of this moves into financial assets, as opposed to the real economy." - Noted economist, David Rosenberg POINTS TO PONDER 1. The recent surge by the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is elevating the odds […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 22, 2014
August 22, 2014
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.’ “ - Sir John Templeton “The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you’re a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!’ “ - Warren […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 15, 2014
August 15, 2014
“Better three hours too soon than a minute too late.” - William Shakespeare   POINTS TO PONDER 1. A recurring EVA subject of late has been the vulnerability of the lowest-rated bonds due to unrealistically puny yields, as a result of investors pushing the safety envelope in search of income. Beginning in late July, a […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 8, 2014
August 8, 2014
“I don’t want to go from wild turkey to cold turkey.” - Richard Fisher, Dallas Fed President, referring to the end of the Fed’s ultra-easy money policies “The problem with fellows [like central bankers], who believe that the markets cannot be left alone and need to be managed when the circumstances are exceptional, is that […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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August 1, 2014
August 1, 2014
“It’s funny. All you have to do is say something nobody understands and they’ll do practically anything you want them to.” - J.D. Salinger, The Catcher in the Rye “The investor’s chief problem—and even his worst enemy—is likely to be himself.” - Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Reinforcing Evergreen’s escalating concerns […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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