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June 13, 2014
June 13, 2014
"We learn from history that we do not learn from history." - Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (courtesy of John Hussman from his June 14, 2014 Weekly Market Comment) The next 20%? It’s not often when my colleague, Anatole Kaletsky, and fund managers Jeremy Grantham and Bill Miller all agree. But, lately, they each have come […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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June 6, 2014
June 6, 2014
"I don’t expect the consensus to be right, I’m just surprised by how wrong it has been." - Fixed-income specialist Jim Bianco, referring to this year’s unexpected bond rally POINTS TO PONDER 1. While most economists have dismissed the US economy’s contraction in the first quarter as a consequence of the extremely severe winter weather, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 30, 2014
May 30, 2014
"You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave." -The Eagles, from their classic song, "Hotel California" The Immaculate correction. Maybe it really is that painless. Perhaps it is possible that US stocks can go through a series of rolling, sector-specific corrections that eliminate the need for a broad market sell-off. […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 23, 2014
May 23, 2014
"Knowledge is power only if man knows what facts not to bother about." -Robert Lynd, sociologist 1. For many years, this newsletter has urged its readers to ignore inflation worries. Lately, though, we have begun to see some indications that consumer prices may be heating up. One of the more intriguing is the growing divergence […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 16, 2014
May 16, 2014
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety), by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." -H.L. Mencken If it’s May, it must be Mauldin. As avid EVA readers are aware, this is the time of year for […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 9, 2014
May 9, 2014
“It’s in human nature to go to excess.” -Warren Buffett POINTS TO PONDER 1.  One of the more heartening aspects of the US economy’s otherwise lackluster recovery is the solid performance by the private sector.  On the flip side, a surge in medical expenditures, due to the previously uninsured now being covered by Obamacare, has […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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May 2, 2014
May 2, 2014
“The Greek economy is not in recession.  Nor is it recovering.  It has collapsed.”  -Wolfgang Munchau of The Financial Times Much to be humble about…  When you write a financial newsletter, it’s easy to fall into a dangerous trap. If you’re not careful, your readers can start to accord you guru status, or, even worse, […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 25, 2014
April 25, 2014
“I’m convinced that everything that’s important in investing is counterintuitive, and everything that’s obvious is wrong.” -Superstar investor, Howard Marks, from his acclaimed recent essay Dare to be Great II POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Most economists seem to believe the negative effects of last year’s massive tax hike impacted 2013 economic activity. However, with affluent […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 18, 2014
April 18, 2014
“History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums.” -Alan Greenspan Brilliant bookends.  As many EVA readers know, Evergreen was extremely fortunate to have both Louis Gave and Grant Williams co-present, along with yours truly, at our February Annual Outlook event. Just as serendipitously, Mauldin Economics offered to record […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 11, 2014
April 11, 2014
“A leader does not deserve the name unless he is willing to occasionally stand alone.” -Henry Kissinger “Deep doubts, deep wisdom; small doubts, little wisdom.” -Chinese proverb POINTS TO PONDER 1.  Last week’s EVA made the case that US productivity growth has slowed dramatically since the new millennium began. The following chart makes that clear […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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