Blog

May 4, 2018
Why a Curve Inversion Matters
A recurring theme in various EVAs over the years is the importance of the yield curve. Sorry, I know a term like that can literally throw non-professional investors—i.e., those with a real life—for a curve. But, unlike with so many human relationships, it’s NOT complicated.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 27, 2018
How Could They Have Been So Stupid?
It’s time for a couple of firsts. The first “first” is that I’ve never before written an introduction to an introduction. The second is that I’ve never attempted to self-publish a book in real-time.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 20, 2018
Quarterly Webinar with David Hay (April 2018)
In this exclusive Quarterly Webinar, David Hay reviews what's happening with MLPs (Master Limited Partnerships), the bond market, inflation and the economy, energy and the US stock market. You don't want to miss this!
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 13, 2018
The Trump Trade Tirade, Part II
The original idea for this week’s EVA was to compile a list of “winners” and “losers” should the escalating trade war play out fully.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 6, 2018
Facepalm
The second quarter of 2018 kicked off with a bang as growing tensions in technology and trade sent investors searching for cover on Monday. In fact, it was the worst April start since… drumroll please… 1929.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 30, 2018
Collision Course?
Have you ever wondered what causes recessions and their close cousins, bear markets? In this month’s Gavekal Evergreen Virtual Adviser (EVA), my good friends Charles Gave and Will Denyer attempt to answer that question, one that has vexed economists and even Federal Reserve officials for decades.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 23, 2018
Fed Storm Rising, Part II
Nearly one year ago to the week, this newsletter made the wild-hair case that the Fed was serious about raising rates. At the time it was a contrarian call—as so many of ours are—because, for years, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen had consistently failed to “normalize” interest rates.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 16, 2018
The Trump Trade Tirade
In an echo of the early February market meltdown, panic unexpectedly shook markets as President Trump unleashed the opening salvo in his war on trade at the end of last month. Bloomberg even went so far as to dub the pull-back a “Tariff Tantrum” in an ominous ode to the Taper Tantrum of 2013.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 9, 2018
The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions
On September 22, 2017 we ran a piece from one of our trusted partners at Gavekal titled “Robots Everywhere, But the Statistics.” The main purpose of the research was to call out an area where real-world data didn’t jive with widespread belief. In a similar vein, this week’s Guest EVA comes from the voice of a world-renowned expert in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Rodney Brooks.
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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March 2, 2018
A "Once in a Generation" Shift
This month’s Gavekal EVA is a body slam worthy of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), at least for those who expect the investment status quo to continue being so. What’s particularly noteworthy is, as you will read, this article was written before the market suddenly did a face-plant early last month (a pratfall it is reprising in recent days).
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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