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August 8, 2024
Buy The Dip? Or Embrace The Rotation?
Back in 2000, when technology stocks hit the wall, one of Gavekal’s first clients told us: “It’s OK. Bear markets serve an important purpose: they return capital to its rightful owners.” Behind this cynicism lies an inherent truth. Bear markets do tend to shake out “weak hands,” clean out retail investors, and punish those who […]
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July 11, 2024
What Drives Innovation?
Modern welfare states need economic growth to keep their show on the road. The ever-rising costs of pensions, of health care and of maintaining crumbling infrastructure all necessitate rising tax revenues. And rising tax revenues typically depend on economic growth. In turn, economic growth is generated either by population expansion or by productivity growth. This […]
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June 27, 2024
To Buy or Not to Buy?
For contrarian investors, which obviously includes yours truly, the most pressing investment question today might be whether Chinese stocks are at a multi-generational buy point. Cover stories such as the ones seen below, especially from The Economist, are nearly fail-safe long-term buy signals. However, it’s merely being factual to state that China’s stock market has […]
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June 20, 2024
Softer Inflation But Fewer Rate Cuts?
US inflation slowed in April, according to CPI data released Wednesday. Yet even though they had this softer inflation data in hand, Federal Reserve policymakers still pared back their rate cut expectations for the year. In the new dot plot published Wednesday, the median projection showed just one rate cut before the end of 2024. […]
By: Will Denyer
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June 13, 2024
A Glimpse into the Future?
Apple has long been celebrated as one of the most innovative companies in the world. Since its groundbreaking launch of the iPhone in 2007, the company has consistently delivered pioneering hardware and software solutions, keeping tech aficionados on the edge of their seats in anticipation of the next "big thing." However, in recent years, there's […]
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May 23, 2024
US Housing At A Key Juncture
The US housing market is humming along nicely, with both construction and sales doing well. New-build prices have stabilized and those of existing homes continue to rise. Such resilience in the face of a long monetary tightening cycle has surprised plenty of commentators, including myself, but it is clear that positive effects from housing are […]
By: Tan Kai Xian
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May 16, 2024
Private Equity (PE) Strings Together Victories Despite Headwinds
Leveraged buyouts (LBOs) and private equity deals face challenges in today’s expensive borrowing environment. However, Permira grabbed headlines this week when the London-based Private Equity firm announced its intent to acquire website builder Squarespace. The deal, valued at $6.9 billion, is the second-largest leveraged buyout of 2024, underscoring a continued appetite for acquisitions within the […]
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May 3, 2024
Economic Uncertainty and the Evolution of Monetary Policymaking
Introduction All eyes were squarely focused on the Federal Reserve this week, as markets whiplashed between several unknowns. Would recent inflation and payroll data nudge the Fed towards a more hawkish stance? Would the Fed signal that it believes it’s losing its fight to bring inflation towards its target rate of 2%? Are rate cuts still on the table this year? Jerome Powell, Chairman […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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April 25, 2024
A Question To Challenge The Deflationary Mindset
The rise in US treasury yields this year initially caused the usual casualties: the yen, won, euro, and British pound. From exchange rates, it seems that the US interest rate wrecking ball is now wreaking destruction among richly-valued technology stocks. Recent trading sessions have seen a vicious rotation in equity markets. It’s not every day […]
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April 18, 2024
Quarterly Market Update - April 2024
This week's newsletter features a presentation by Evergreen's Co-Chief Investment Officer, Jeff Dicks. He reflects on the first quarter of 2024 and reviews the investment committee's market outlook in 27 charts. In addition to these insights, Jeff also discusses key themes to pay attention to for the remainder year. DISCLOSURE: Securities highlighted or discussed in this […]
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