Blog

October 31, 2024
Behind The Bond Sell-Off
TLT.US, the long-dated US treasury ETF, is back trading below its 200-day moving average, and on current form is looking at its fourth year running of negative price returns. Not that this sell-off reflects any lack of retail investor enthusiasm for US bonds. Quite the contrary. As US treasuries pulled back, flows into TLT.US went […]
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October 10, 2024
Continuation Funds: A Strategic Pivot Towards Liquidity in Venture Capital
Liquidity has always been a significant challenge for early- and growth-stage venture investments. In recent years, this challenge has intensified, with mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and exit opportunities becoming less frequent. To tackle this issue, venture capital firms have increasingly turned to a tool called a “continuation fund.” A continuation fund involves transferring stakes from […]
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September 27, 2024
Deep Dive: Concentration in the U.S. Markets
In today's podcast, Wealth Consultant, Kaeli Kaainoa, CFP®, sits down with our Senior Analyst, Gherman Howell for a deep dive into the past 18 months for equity markets, focusing on the so-called "Magnificent 7" – Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla. After the rotation to value in 2022, these tech giants reached a […]
By: Evergreen Gavekal
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September 19, 2024
US Elections, From The Outside Looking In
US presidential elections are terrific entertainment. Given their cost (a couple of billion US dollars for either side), this is just as well. This uniquely elevated price point might help to explain why every election is “the most important in our lifetime” and a “genuine toss-up” between the two main candidates. If a candidate were […]
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September 12, 2024
VC Dealmaking Begins to Rotate
After a decade of strong performance, early-stage and growth companies have faced significant challenges since early 2022. These challenges include rising interest rates, reduced exit activity, and falling valuations. To illustrate the shift from a bull to a bear market for VC-backed companies, consider the following two charts. The first shows that the post-IPO performance […]
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August 22, 2024
US Housing And Government Action
In setting out their election platforms, both Democrats and Republicans want to address housing affordability, which has become a hot-button issue for US voters. Two and half years of tight monetary policy has left potential homebuyers unable to afford a new property and persuaded potential sellers that they should sit tight and keep enjoying cheap […]
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August 8, 2024
Buy The Dip? Or Embrace The Rotation?
Back in 2000, when technology stocks hit the wall, one of Gavekal’s first clients told us: “It’s OK. Bear markets serve an important purpose: they return capital to its rightful owners.” Behind this cynicism lies an inherent truth. Bear markets do tend to shake out “weak hands,” clean out retail investors, and punish those who […]
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July 11, 2024
What Drives Innovation?
Modern welfare states need economic growth to keep their show on the road. The ever-rising costs of pensions, of health care and of maintaining crumbling infrastructure all necessitate rising tax revenues. And rising tax revenues typically depend on economic growth. In turn, economic growth is generated either by population expansion or by productivity growth. This […]
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June 27, 2024
To Buy or Not to Buy?
For contrarian investors, which obviously includes yours truly, the most pressing investment question today might be whether Chinese stocks are at a multi-generational buy point. Cover stories such as the ones seen below, especially from The Economist, are nearly fail-safe long-term buy signals. However, it’s merely being factual to state that China’s stock market has […]
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June 20, 2024
Softer Inflation But Fewer Rate Cuts?
US inflation slowed in April, according to CPI data released Wednesday. Yet even though they had this softer inflation data in hand, Federal Reserve policymakers still pared back their rate cut expectations for the year. In the new dot plot published Wednesday, the median projection showed just one rate cut before the end of 2024. […]
By: Will Denyer
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